20 NOV 2021 (SAT)- Aave (AAVE) Report Card

20 NOV 2021 (SAT)- Aave (AAVE) Report Card

By quantdoge | Daily Crypto Risk Report | 20 Nov 2021


Investment Disclaimer:

  • I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
  • Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
  • This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.

1A. Top 2 Good News for AAVE HODLERS !!!

1B. Top Bad News for AAVE HODLERS !!!

2. How Aave Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

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As of 19 Nov 2021, Aave has made a cumulative return of 52,348.04% since Jan 2020 and 73.26%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 21th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

3. Technical Analysis on Aave

3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

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VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when AAVE is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of AAVE (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of AAVE (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 19 Nov 2021, VWAP is suggesting that AAVE is losing significant momentum.

3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

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MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of AAVE closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that AAVE is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that AAVE is losing momentum. 

As of 19 Nov 2021, MACD is suggesting that AAVE is losing significant momentum.

3.3. Bollinger Band

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Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of AAVE
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of AAVE on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of AAVE from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of AAVE

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that AAVE is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that AAVE is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 19 Nov 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that AAVE has been severely oversold.

3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

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Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that AAVE is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that AAVE is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 19 Nov 2021, RSI is suggesting that AAVE has been severely oversold.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge is bullish on the short-term price outlook of Aave, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

4. Aave Risk Profile

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Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Aave defined above, AAVE seems to trade at a similar risk level on 19 Nov 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 09 Nov 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -16.86% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

5. Price Simulation for Aave

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How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual AAVE price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, AAVE has been trading below the median of quantdoge simulations, indicating that AAVE has been slightly oversold, and is trading at an undervalued position. 


6. AAVE Community Analytics

Number of AAVE Followers In The Past 24 Months



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During the past 12 months, Aave followers have increased 875.36 % from 1445 followers to 14,094 followers on Reddit.

Monthly increment of Aave Twitter followers peaked on Feb 2021 and its monthly increment of Reddit followers peaked on Feb 2021.

Number of AAVE Followers In The Last 30 Days

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In the last 30 days alone, Aave followers have grown 4.04 % from 13,547 to 14,094 on Reddit.

Daily increment of Aave followers peaked on 29 Oct 2021.

7. Google Analytics

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Aave reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-01-31 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, Aave Google Score has increased 18.18 % from 38.5 to 45.5
Over the last 6 months, Aave Google Score has decreased 9.9 % from 50.5 to 45.5

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Based on Google searches, Aave is most sought after in Luxembourg, followed by Kuwait and North Macedonia this month.

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.

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quantdoge
quantdoge

Data scientist in crypto and blockchain space.


Daily Crypto Risk Report
Daily Crypto Risk Report

This blog was created by quantdoge, a data scientist in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space to publish daily risk reports on different cryptocurrencies. All published reports in this blog were analyzed with in-house algorithmic trading and quantitative risk management technology. ** Investment disclaimer: ** I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.

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