17 May 2021 (MON)- Uniswap (UNI) Daily Risk Report

By quantdoge | Daily Crypto Risk Report | 17 May 2021


Investment Disclaimer:

  • I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
  • Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
  • This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post. 
1. Top 3 Good News for UNI HODLERS !!!

2. How Uniswap Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

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As of 17 May 2021, Uniswap has made a cumulative return of 1027.76% since Jan 2020 and 751.34%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 7th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

3. Technical Analysis on Uniswap

3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

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VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when UNI is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of UNI (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of UNI (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 17 May 2021, VWAP is suggesting that UNI is trading below its average price of USD 38 to USD 39 per Uniswap token.

3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

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MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of UNI closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that UNI is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that UNI is losing momentum. 

As of 17 May 2021, MACD is suggesting that UNI is losing momentum this week.

3.3. Bollinger Band

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Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of UNI
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of UNI on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of UNI from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of UNI

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that UNI is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that UNI is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 17 May 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that UNI is trading near an oversold (i.e. undervalued) level.

3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

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Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that UNI is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that UNI is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 17 May 2021, RSI is suggesting that UNI is trading at its fair value.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a slight bullish stance on the short-term price outlook of Uniswap token and personally thinks that its current price could go higher in the coming week, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

4. Uniswap Risk Profile

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Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Uniswap defined above, UNI seems to trade at a lower risk level on 17 May 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 07 May 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at - 12.95% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

5. Price Simulation for Uniswap

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How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual UNI price movement over the last week ?

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Over the last 7 days, UNI has been trading near the median price range of quantdoge simulations, indicating that UNI was trading near a fair value level over the last week.

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If you are into Ethereum (ETH) and Cardano (ADA), I have made similar analysis on them at:

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates. 

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quantdoge
quantdoge

Data scientist in crypto and blockchain space.


Daily Crypto Risk Report
Daily Crypto Risk Report

This blog was created by quantdoge, a data scientist in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space to publish daily risk reports on different cryptocurrencies. All published reports in this blog were analyzed with in-house algorithmic trading and quantitative risk management technology. ** Investment disclaimer: ** I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.

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