08 DEC 2021 (WED)- The Graph (GRT) Report Card


Investment Disclaimer:

  • I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
  • Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
  • This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
  • I do hold a long position in The Graph as a token holder.

1. How The Graph Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

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As of 07 Dec 2021, The Graph has made a cumulative return of 39.24% since Jan 2020 and 39.13%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 23th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

3. Technical Analysis on The Graph

2.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

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VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when GRT is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of GRT (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of GRT (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 07 Dec 2021, VWAP is suggesting that GRT has been losing big momentum following the market sell-off.

2.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

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MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of GRT closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that GRT is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that GRT is losing momentum. 

As of 07 Dec 2021, MACD is suggesting that GRT has been losing big momentum following the market sell-off.

2.3. Bollinger Band

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Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of GRT
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of GRT on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of GRT from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of GRT

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that GRT is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that GRT is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 07 Dec 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that GRT has been oversold to an undervalued position.

2.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

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Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that GRT is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that GRT is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 07 Dec 2021, RSI is suggesting that GRT is neither oversold nor overbought.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a slight bullish stance on GRT, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

3.The Graph Risk Profile

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Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of The Graph defined above, GRT seems to trade at a similar risk level on 07 Dec 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 27 Nov 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -25.56% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

4. Monte Carlo Price Simulation for The Graph

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual GRT price movement over the last week ?

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Over the last 7 days, GRT has fallen below the lower 25th percentile of quantdoge simulations, indicating that GRT was oversold to a relatively undervalued position. 

5. GRT Community Analytics

Number of GRT Followers In The Last 30 Days

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In the last 30 days alone, The Graph followers have increased 9.72% from 164,015 to 179,956 on Twitter and grown 2.84 % from 19,321 to 20,063 on Reddit.

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Daily increment of The Graph Twitter followers peaked on 03 Dec 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 30 Nov 2021.

6. Google Trends Analytics

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the graph reached its peak in Google Search on 2020-10-04 with a Google Score of 92
Over the last quarter, the graph Google Score has decreased 20.63 % from 50.4 to 40.0
Over the last 6 months, the graph Google Score has increased 2.56 % from 39.0 to 40.0

7.Developer Activity Analytics

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Fork

Fork refers to the amount of time where the Github repo of current cryptocurrency is being copied. Higher fork number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more interest in the developers community who likes to explore more on the deep technical of this project.

The Graph forks increased 177.04% from 135.0 to 374.0 in the past year.

Star

Star refers to the number of developers who bookmark the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher star number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.

The Graph stars increased 142.53% from 616.0 to 1494.0 in the past year.

Subscriber

Subscriber refers to developers who subscribed to the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher subscriber number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.

The Graph subscribers increased 127.27% from 33.0 to 75.0 in the past year.

Pull Request

Pull request contributor refers to developer who has made a successful improvements/ modifications on the Github repo of this current cryptocurrency project. Higher number of pull request contributors could mean that there is a high number of commitment given by developers to this cryptocurrency project.


The Graph pull_request_contributors increased 82.14% from 28.0 to 51.0 in the past year.

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.

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quantdoge
quantdoge

Data scientist in crypto and blockchain space.


Daily Crypto Risk Report
Daily Crypto Risk Report

This blog was created by quantdoge, a data scientist in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space to publish daily risk reports on different cryptocurrencies. All published reports in this blog were analyzed with in-house algorithmic trading and quantitative risk management technology. ** Investment disclaimer: ** I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.

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