´´Important Scenarios for the Next Cycle´´
This is possibly the most important analysis of the year.
Save it because it will be our roadmap for the coming months.
The price finally reached 60k!!
From now on, there are two ways to optimally trade this scenario in the coming weeks: based on price and based on time.
1- Based on price:
The important thing here is to understand that we are within a fairly wide Annual Imbalance (FVG-Y) that starts at 74,500 and ends at 44,700.
Within this range, the most important price levels are the following:
- 58,945: Quarterly low.
- 57,000: 0.375 Fibonacci level.
- 52,550: Monthly low.
- 49,000: Quarterly low.
*43155: 0.25 Fibonacci level (...this is the most extreme price and I see a drop below this level as highly unlikely)
Therefore, if we see price accumulation at these levels over the next few days/weeks, it means the next move will be bullish and the market will begin a new macro cycle.
2- Based on Time:
This strategy is much simpler because it works like a DCA strategy and can be done on daily, weekly, or monthly timeframes.
Here, you buy below the previous candle (daily - weekly - monthly) while the price is in the 60k - 44k range. It's that simple.
Exit Liquidity:
The opening price for this year is 87648 and the high reached in May is 82850... so these will be the levels to start taking partial profits.
97925 and 126000 are mandatory levels where you should take the maximum possible profit, because the market is most likely to develop a new bullish cycle. However, there's always a small chance that something different will happen, and if the price decides to fall back to the 80k-70k zone to create a macro accumulation range (for example), it's ideal to have taken profits during that time.
Invalidation (SL):
Right now, it's difficult to say what the ideal level will be to identify an invalidation for this trade, because the price needs to finish developing and give us more information. But if we think of this trade as a classic 1:2 risk-reward ratio, then that leaves us with a stop-loss in the 17k zone.
Best Confirmation for Conservatives:
But if you're very conservative and prefer to avoid headaches, then the ideal trade is to wait for a change in the macro structure.
For this to work, the price needs to break above 82850 and retrace to 50% of its last move.
This way, you'll have a clear invalidation level to place your stop loss.
Remember, this strategy won't let you get the absolute lowest prices, but it will give you much more peace of mind.
It's also important to monitor price development over the next few weeks, because if another swing down occurs, you'll be able to enter at a much better price.
In conclusion:
Here we have different scenarios that suit each person, depending on their individual characteristics.
It's not about guessing, but about managing and having a plan amidst the chaos.
We'll see a lot of news in the coming weeks trying to justify every move, but it will all be noise.
What's truly important is knowing where we are right now to avoid falling into traps and misinformation: We're in buying territory, and here we should prioritize buying and avoid selling. The rest is just patience.
It's that simple.
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