BTC
Friday's extreme move has made the market's intention much clearer.
Whenever the price creates a range, the lower half of that range acts as the optimal area for buying, because that's where we have the cheapest prices... and the same is true in reverse for selling.
The last range we had was the one created during this month of October, which Friday's extreme move completely invalidated.
But let's be honest... This Friday move was anything but an organic market move... So, at this point, the likelihood of seeing another such dirty move by market makers in such a short period of time has significantly reduced, and that leads us to focus on the next macro range.
This range is what has created the price action throughout 2025. With a minimum price at 74,500 and a maximum at 126,200.
The middle of this range is located at approximately 100,450... ...But the important thing here is the FVG-M and the yearly open (YO), which we have just below.
So, the price zone between 98,200 and 93,500 will be the next level to watch for buy confirmations.
ETH
In the case of ETH, we also have a macro range that oscillates from 1,385 to 4,956.
The middle of this range is at 3,175, and this zone also converges with a FVG-M and the yearly open (YO). And this is where the price has a high probability of reacting.
- These movements are most likely to occur during the first few days of November... that would be ideal.
- However, if for some reason we see these movements occur during this next week, then we could see an explosive upward movement by the end of October or the beginning of November.
- It's always important to wait for the best confirmation to enter, but that depends on each person's strategy.
- Keep in mind that volatility could increase significantly for the rest of Q4, due to the precedent set by last Friday's movement... so it's advisable to tighten your risk management even more.
Over the next few hours and days, liquidity will reappear at institutional levels, in the shorter term... that is, opens, closes, highs, lows, 50% wicks, CME Gap, etc.
This will allow for some shorter-term trades, but they will be within a range, which increases the risk level.
That's why it's best to wait for the market to take advantage of external liquidity, because that's where it's most likely to react, and at the same time, it's where we'll have the greatest advantage and best protection.
* We will monitor this analysis as the price action develops.
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