During the 42nd ASEAN Summit, the leaders of the 10 Southeast Asian nations belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) agreed to promote using local currencies for economic and financial transactions. The declaration aims to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and strengthen regional financial integration. This move follows a meeting in March where ASEAN finance ministers and central bank governors discussed reinforcing the use of local currencies in cross-border trade and investment. The de-dollarization efforts align with similar initiatives by the BRICS nations, such as developing a common currency, which could challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar and impact its reserve currency status.
Regarding BRICS, investment analyst Jon Wolfenbarger has warned that the BRICS nations' efforts to establish a common currency could negatively affect the U.S., including lower living standards and reduced government power. The success of a BRICS currency could erode the dominance of the U.S. dollar, impacting its global influence. Wolfenbarger believes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's economic growth are driving the BRICS countries to accelerate their plans to challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar. While acknowledging that the BRICS would face challenges, such as their reputation for respecting laws and having strong currencies, Wolfenbarger suggests that a hard currency backed by gold or commodities like oil would give them a better chance. He emphasizes that if the U.S. does not change its policies to strengthen the dollar and focus on peace, it could gradually lose its reserve currency status, weakening the U.S. government and living standards.
Regarding the USA, former White House economist Joseph Sullivan has expressed concerns about the potential impact of a BRICS currency on the dominance of the U.S. dollar. Sullivan believes that if the BRICS nations use a common currency for international trade, it will remove an obstacle in their efforts to escape dollar hegemony. He points out that bilateral agreements between BRICS countries, such as using the yuan in China-Russia trade, already challenge the dollar's dominance. Sullivan suggests that the BRICS could achieve self-sufficiency in international trade that other currency unions have not. However, he acknowledges the practical challenges of implementing a BRICS currency, including the need for a supranational central bank. Sullivan also discusses the potential impact on the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, highlighting both advantages and disadvantages for the United States. While he does not expect the dollar's reign to end abruptly, Sullivan believes that a BRICS currency could gradually erode its dominance.
Meanwhile, Bank of Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo has confirmed that Indonesia is following the de-dollarization efforts of the BRICS bloc to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar in trade and financial transactions. Indonesia has implemented the local currency trade (LCT) system, which is considered more concrete than the approach taken by the BRICS nations. The LCT system has been implemented in several countries, including Thailand, Malaysia, China, and Japan, and an agreement with South Korea is planned. The move away from the U.S. dollar is driven by concerns about the weaponization of the currency by the U.S. government, and countries are seeking alternatives and exploring the use of local currencies and the creation of new common currencies. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has acknowledged that economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. jeopardize the dollar's dominance.
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