Bitcoin is hovering around $84,000 as higher U.S. Treasury yields and rising oil prices continue to put pressure on risk assets. BTC was up 0.9% over the past 24 hours on Tuesday, but still down about 2% for the week, remaining largely stuck in the $82,000–$84,000 range for roughly a week and a half.

Rising Yields and Oil Prices Keep Pressure on Bitcoin

A big part of the pressure is coming from the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed to 5.274% on Monday, its highest level since June 2007, while the 30-year yield reached 5.583%, a level not seen since 2002. Both eased slightly on Tuesday as oil prices pulled back.

Brent crude had moved back above $100 a barrel on Monday after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil later slipped below $104, down around 1.7% on the day after briefly topping $108. At the same time, indirect talks between U.S. and Iranian officials continued through Qatar, while Saudi Arabia restored roughly half of the flows through its East-West pipeline, providing an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. Gold, meanwhile, fell to a seven-week low.

Despite the macro pressure, Bitcoin has shown some resilience. Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda said higher crude prices are limiting upside in non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, though he still sees the current price action as consolidation within a short-term uptrend. Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman similarly noted that BTC has held the $82,000–$84,000 range despite the broader macro backdrop and the Senate’s failure to advance the Clarity Act, pointing to continued institutional demand.

That institutional demand is also visible in spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have now recorded inflows for eight straight sessions totaling roughly $3 billion. Monday’s net inflow was relatively small at $31.07 million: BlackRock’s IBIT brought in $54.84 million and Grayscale’s mini trust added $10.32 million, while GBTC saw $23.19 million in outflows and Fidelity’s FBTC lost $10.90 million. Collectively, the funds now hold $107.82 billion, equal to 6.42% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization.

Institutional Demand Holds Up as Traders Watch the Fed

Options traders, however, remain cautious. The 25-delta put-call skew for seven- to 30-day maturities is close to neutral, suggesting traders are balancing downside protection with positioning for a potential rally.

Strategy is also continuing to accumulate Bitcoin. The company bought another 1,665 BTC for about $142.7 million between September 21 and 27, bringing its total holdings to 847,666 BTC. That is above the 847,363 BTC it held in June, setting a new record for the company.

The next major catalyst will be U.S. economic data. August core PCE and the second estimate of Q2 GDP are due Wednesday. Core PCE was running at 3.3% year over year in July, while the Fed raised its 2026 projection for the measure to 3.4% at its latest meeting. Friday’s September jobs report is expected to show payroll growth of around 90,000, down from 162,000 in August, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. Barclays chief U.S. economist Marc Giannoni has a lower estimate of about 50,000 jobs.

The Fed meets again on October 27–28, just three weeks after delivering its first rate hike since 2023. Markets are now pricing in a 70.3% chance of another 25-basis-point hike, up from 55.4% a week ago and 17.7% a month earlier. On Myriad, traders are putting the odds at 69%.

For now, Bitcoin is holding its ground, but the next move could depend heavily on oil prices, Treasury yields, and how upcoming U.S. economic data shapes expectations for the Fed.

Key Points to Watch

• Bitcoin: Trading around $84,000 and holding the $82,000–$84,000 range.
• Treasury yields: 10-year at 5.274% and 30-year at 5.583%, both near multi-year highs.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Eight consecutive sessions of inflows totaling roughly $3 billion.
• Strategy: Added 1,665 BTC for about $142.7 million, bringing holdings to 847,666 BTC.
• U.S. data: Core PCE, Q2 GDP, and the September jobs report are the next major market catalysts.
• Fed expectations: Markets price a 70.3% chance of another 25-basis-point rate hike.