Bitcoin movements in the short term suggest a shy optimism, let's see what the next target for the price can be.
Technical Analysis
After about ten positive days, which saw a rise in price from $37000 to $45000, Bitcoin found an obstacle in the offer, around the MA50 on the weekly timeframe. The previous bearish movement stopped at what appears to be the bottom, from which a very important leg-up then started. At the moment it appears that the price trend is testing the $41000 support which, if held, would prove to be a fundamental level. As for the main indicators, however, it can be seen that on the daily time-frame the 50 and 200-period moving averages crossed downwards forming a death-cross on January 10 and have yet to reverse their trend. The RSI, on the other hand, has shown an upward break from its bearish trend, indicating an increase in the buying force. This is a very bullish sign as it points out that demand is picking up strength in the short term. At the moment, therefore, there are two possible scenarios: the first is the loss of the level at 41k, which would be anything but positive, while the second corresponds to the holding of the same level, which would open the way to the next level at 50k. The retest that is taking place at the moment is therefore decisive and it is necessary to see how BTC will behave in the coming days.
On-chain Analysis
As for the on-chain analysis, it can be said that it hasn't changed much from the previous month. We will therefore focus on a particular data that does not directly concern Bitcoin but which still has repercussions on it: the stablecoins reserves of the exchanges. These reserves are, in fact, stocks that are maintained by investors on exchanges and that when they increase signal a very specific intention, namely the purchase. When an investor deposits a certain amount of stablecoin on the exchange, he does so to buy another cryptocurrency.
As you can see, the stablecoins reserves on the major exchanges are at an all-time high and the trend shows no signs of decreasing. It can therefore be inferred that the market sentiment of investors is towards buying and they are preparing. It goes without saying that a massive purchase can only mean one thing for BTC, namely the reduction in currency.
Conclusions
After the volatility of the recent period, market sentiment is very cautious. There have been numerous liquidations of short positions, followed by as many liquidations of long positions. All of this has led to many traders making a loss and some fear has spread. Conversely, those who invest a long-term Bitcoin have not perceived any of this. For this reason, as always in this market, two figures are outlined: the trader and the investor. The first is attentive to the analyzes we have made pico ago while the second is impassive and at the moment he is gaining. In conclusion, it can therefore be said that we are in a phase of uncertainty for Bitcoin, which seems to have reached a bottom.
Not a financial advice. DYOR.
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