Bitcoin seems to have found a certain directionality following the stop made around the price range of $39000, but going to hit the head on the resistance of 48k. Many are already wondering if the bull market has restarted, also seeing the performances of some altcoins. In the last few days, in fact, we have been pleased to see the price rise which led to a positive closing of the month of March, but how is it really going from the point of view of the graphical analysis?
Technical Analysis
The monthly candlestick for March is green and directional and undoubtedly represents a positive signal for Bitcoin's price action. Furthermore, on the BTC/USD chart (Tradingview) with weekly timeframe, it can be seen how Bitcoin has leaned on the resistance at 38k and then starts up again and touches $47000. At this point, however, the price seems to have found resistance a little more difficult to pass and therefore marked a slight reversal. Analyzing the graph from the daily timeframe, finally, we notice how the 50 and 200 period moving averages are still as we left them, that is with the MA50 below the MA200. The price, however, with respect to these indicators has moved just above the MA200. This is a first signal of a possible reversal of the trend, which would be confirmed by the crossing of the two averages to form a Golden Cross. The main price support, however, is currently at $44700 and is the EMA200. Finally, the RSI indicator is also showing a positive trend, indicating an increase in purchasing power that has been growing for a few weeks now.
If we turn our attention to the Futures market we can see a small alarm bell relating to the volumes that accompanied the recent rise. In fact, they are not very high even if such a movement should be accompanied by an above average trading volume. It can be assumed, however, that investors are waiting for a slight reversal, perhaps at the 42-43k level, to enter.
BTC-Dominance: Bitcoin's dominance vis-à-vis altcoins is undergoing a reversal and on a graphical level it is below the 9 and 20 period EMAs. This indicates that many altcoins may have marked bottoms against BTC and, therefore, we expect better performance of the same.
Total Marketcap: After a bottom marked a few weeks ago, the total cryptocurrency marketcap seems to have found its bullish direction. However, in the last period it has also suffered a slight reversal that brings it back towards the support closest to 1.90T. A positive reaction in the coming days on that support would be a strong confirmation of the bullish directionality.
On Chain Analysis
Some recent movements related to the purchase of large capital by the Terra Foundation have sparked a lot of FOMO among investors and many believe that the upside we have seen is their fault. Undoubtedly these purchases have contributed to further lowering the availability of Bitcoin on exchanges, but I remain skeptical about the short-term impact on the price. Rather, I would focus more attention on a detail concerning the Whales: it seems that the entities that hold more than 1000BTC have finally returned to accumulating Bitcoin after a discharge that lasted for a year now. This accumulation, if it were to continue, would undoubtedly mark an increase in the purchasing power, as well as a greater scarcity of the circulating supply.
Some recent movements related to the purchase of large capital by the Terra Foundation have sparked a lot of FOMO among investors and many believe that the upside we have seen is their fault. Undoubtedly these purchases have contributed to further lowering the availability of Bitcoin on exchanges, but I remain skeptical about the short-term impact on the price. Rather, I would focus more attention on a detail concerning the Whales: it seems that the entities that hold more than 1000BTC have finally returned to accumulating Bitcoin after a discharge that lasted for a year now. This accumulation, if it were to continue, would undoubtedly mark an increase in the purchasing power, as well as a greater scarcity of the circulating supply.
Conclusions
Very bullish signals come from the Bitcoin world, but particular attention must be given to the volumes traded. We therefore remain in the expectation that they follow the price trend upwards, even if many data coming from the on-chain analysis are encouraging. The bull-run for many is already around the corner and it seems very little to get it started again. Who knows if the offer will be particularly felt in the days to come, but what is certain is that if the price held above the support at $42,000 it would already be a great achievement. I therefore conclude by leaving a reflection to the reader regarding a comparison between the present and past Bitcoin market cycles. From the halving, in fact, it has marked important increases but less and less marked over the years. Will this cycle follow the previous ones or will it deviate from them?
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