A fake storm, a sudden movement and a return to the range were the events that characterized the beginning of 2024 for Bitcoin.
In fact, on January 3, an event occurred that led to the sale of several BTC, with the consequent liquidation of many long positions: false news regarding an alleged rejection of the spot ETF on Bitcoin. There is no need to point out that any rebound by the S.E.C. of the ETF would have no impact on Bitcoin fundamentals, but the quantity and strength of sellers make it clear how much people expect imminent approval. The consequence of this news was, precisely, a strong red candle, a 10% correction in the asset price and generalized FUD. However, the macro structure of the BTC/USD chart has not changed for months now, the trend is bullish and shows no signs of stopping. Indeed, since October 2023 it has been possible to observe an inflection point in the trend of the graph which leads the latter to trend upwards more steeply than before. The truth is that Bitcoin is currently testing a key resistance: the origin of the largest leg-dawn that started the bear market. In fact, once the $47,000 level has been recovered, one could hypothetically aim for ATH.
Technical Analysis
Analyzing the daily candlestick that formed on January 3rd under a microscope, you can see how it is made up of 50% of the body and 50% of the lower shadow. This denotes a strong presence of buyers ready to make their trade in the area between $40k and 42k. Furthermore, on January 4th a green candlestick closed with a very wide body compared to the shadow and which brought the price back to the $44,000 range. Volumes are also important to analyze and, as can be seen from the Tradingview graph, they are clearly increasing compared to past weeks. This simply translates into greater interest on the part of short-term traders for a movement that allowed them to open profitable positions. Despite everything, however, the greatest support is in the area between $39400 and $40900 and corresponds to pockets of liquidity formed between 2021 and 2022. The resistance we were talking about before, however, arises in 2022 and is at $47000. Further up there is another one between 50 and 50 thousand dollars and then, obviously, the All Time High. Unfortunately, however, before we can hope to reach similar prices, it is necessary to exit the range we are in now and close a few candlesticks above $46,000, otherwise we risk false brakeouts like the one a few days ago.
The Total Marketcap graph, however, has not undergone major fluctuations and is growing with the EMA50 acting as support. It currently stands at 1.62T, a value already achieved in February 2021 in full bull-run. Capital is rushing in, certain of the approval of the spot ETF by the Securities and Exchanges Commission.
Conclusions
It is not possible to know in advance whether the Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved or not and there is a lot of speculation going on. However, the metrics described above reflect a key concept: too many people are improvising as investors. This is a phenomenon that happens in periods in which BTC suddenly rises in price, just as happened from October 2023 onwards. 2024 promises to be one of the potentially most bullish years for Bitcoin as, in addition to the ETF, a halving awaits us. The halving, in fact, has always been a catalyst for the price and therefore for the entry of new investors and seekers of easy profit. Furthermore, to fuel everything, the FOMO resulting from the fact that there are fewer and fewer coins in circulation and those minted also comes into play. Despite this, many think that the market has already priced in the choice that the SEC will make in a few days and that we must now expect an overall calm period. But should we therefore expect an even more marked rise in price or consolidation after the approval of the ETF? You can never predict the price movement, but you can certainly predict the entry into the market of entities who will purchase Bitcoin in order to make a profit, called short-term investors. What we should expect, therefore, will be a (we hope) slight increase in the price and sudden relapses every time negative news circulates about X.
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