Bitcoin
Current Price: $44,676.64
Coin Ranking: #1
After a week of rallying back into the upper $40,000 level, Bitcoin has steadily declined in price. Nothing too concerning, most likely following the stock market's price movement but it was sad to see it fail to reach the $50,000 level once again. As many do at this time, I along with many financial advisors are speculating where Bitcoin will go. Many place Bitcoin's price value at $200,000 in the near future, possibly even the end of this year. This is due to Bitcoin possibly experiencing a double bull run in 2021 following the 2013 price movement. In this scenario, Bitcoin would experience growth of about 4X. 4X from this current point would put Bitcoin at around $200,000 a bold estimate in my opinion. What some fail to see is that in 2013, after the first peak, Bitcoin's price decreased by 88%. In 2021, Bitcoin price did decrease but only about 55%. Many believe that the reason Bitcoin did not drop as far is due to the amount of long-term investors in Bitcoin in 2021. I would argue that there are the same amount of long term investors in percentage in 2013 when comparing to 2021. Bitcoin in 2013 was just getting it barings, it was very much a fad or a cool thing to own but many owners of Bitcoin were not trading it like a stock then, many people were treating Bitcoin like gold. Going back to the 2013 2021 comparison you can see that the mid year bottom is quite different, therefore we should not expect a 4X gain. The most likely gain that would occur would be 2X - 2.5X, roughly placing Bitcoin at 120K-150K. I am also of the opinion that this gain will not occur until late next year.
Bitcoin is at such a volatile point in it illustrious 10+ year run. Bitcoin year after year has been able to surpass new highs, going 2X to even 5X in some years but this might be Bitcoin's hardest level yet. If we look at last month's open and this month's potential close, we can see we are still very much in choppy waters. We might be in a bull market but this can change on dime and next thing you know we are heading south of $30,000. The likelihood of Bitcoin flipping on dime is low due to so many financial institutions holding the currency yet it is very much still a possibility. As we stand right now, Bitcoin is in the middle of the ocean, lost without direction. It can return home and try this again next year or in two years or it can continue its journey to $100,000. Yet there has been no decision made, now I do not care what financial experts say or do, they have no control over where Bitcoin goes, they can barely predict it. My guess is Bitcoin remains stagnant until the end of the year. We might see a spike or two to $70,000 or a drop to $20,000 but in the end will be stuck in the middle. Bitcoin will wait for fresh start at the beginning of 2022. 2022 however could be the year in which Bitcoin reaches it long time goal of $100,000.
This is going to be a much shorter article addressing some Twitter comments I have received and seen lately about Bitcoin possibly rising to $200,000 by the end of the year. If you do not follow me on Twitter, you are more than welcome to @Hypothetical. However, I am not recommending you do, I will post about stocks and cryptos but I will also post about random stuff, so if you don't mind my random rants every once in awhile than by all means follow me on Twitter!
- Hypothetical out, happy trading everyone!
