BTC Halving: The “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario

By Rearden | CryptoPhilosophy | 10 May 2020

The idea is simple to understand: anticipation can play on the price of a crypto. Anticipating a rise, investors take position themselves on it... but sell everything as soon as news of a big rise is broadcast. The price of Bitcoin has been dropping sharply since yesterday: It is currently trading at $8500 on the main trading platforms after hitting the 10,000 dollars.

The signals given over the past several weeks were advocating a rise to around $8500 and $10,000. All targets have been met and in the short term, small logical profit-taking takes place.


But there is another explanation, linked to the FOMO with the Halving approach. Speculators flooded Twitter, saying that Bitcoin was going to go up in price, as in the past, creating artificial euphoria.


As always, many newbie traders put trailing stop-losses, believing that we're going to the moon in a straight line. Stop-losses are automatic sell orders to protect themselves from collapse. But as soon as a slightly larger drop than the others occurs, the stop-losses are automatically triggered in a cascade...


Many people don't understand what Halving is. They think that Halving is necessarily bullish in the short term. But no one can predict it. Remember that the price of Bitcoin depends solely on the ratio of supply and demand. It does not depend on the behaviour of an authority, such as a central bank, but on millions of individual decisions taken continuously in human brains or in the machines programmed by them.

But in the two previous Halvings nothing had happened: the price had started to rise very long before and continued to rise very long afterwards, with variations.


Moreover, some people think that the miners don't have as much influence as they used to have and that, as a result, the price of Bitcoin could, on the contrary, collapse.


In conclusion, we must be careful not to believe too easily in the moon.


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