If you need indication that the crypto bear is not over, take a look at US Treasury rates. They are now hovering, on average, at levels that are higher than what you can get on CEXes staking bitcoin and other blue chip crypto assets.

What a minute, what? US Treasury rates are actually a better investment right now than crypto?

Some are. And this is a problem for crypto in the short term. The old folks and the institutions that cater to them (pension funds, family offices, government social security programs, etc.) have no reason to put their trillions into the crypto market now. And those are the trillions that everyone is waiting on.

As long as the Fed continues to raise interest rates, it seems as though this trend will continue. And the longer it goes, the more money will flow out of crypto into "safe" T-bills.

Crypto maxis contend the Fed will not be able to keep rates up this long. Because the longer T-bill rates stay up in the 3% range, the less stable governments around the world become. If the Fed raises rates higher, the instability speeds up. How long will politicians allow the central bank to impose austerity before they force a reversal? Time will tell.

Here's what those noobs don't know.

Articles describing how T-bill yields are higher than bitcoin yields are focused on noobs and old people. Defi yields — you know, the yields these CEXes grabbed in order to pay their yields to noobs — are still higher than T-bill yields. The question: Is it worth it to take the risk?

Myself, I don't look at holding blue chip cryptos as "risk." For instance, as I write this, the yield on WBNB is 6.5% on Ramp Defi. The BUSD/BNB pool is 10.5%. If you are worried about "impermanent loss" in investments like these, we're not on the same page.

If you hold a yield farm or a stake until the price of the asset returns to its original price after it drops, then you've lost nothing. The "impermanent loss" evaporates, because it's only permanent if you have to take the investment away. And you're left with more of the token than you had, because you receive interest. The entire notion of impermanent loss is just someone trying to sound smarter than they are, honestly.

Point is, defi yields are still higher, so unless you have 7 figures or more to move back into T-bills, it really doesn't behoove you to move. The percentage you'll pay to withdraw from crypto and move back into fiat will more than eat up the yield you make, anyway.

All of the big leveraged losers like 3AC, Voyager and Celsius are out of the defi game now, so the TVL you see on defi protocols is a much better indication of real money. I believe blue chips/gas tokens are good investments over T-bills, because no one has the balls for continued austerity. I wouldn't invest in any shitcoins on new projects, because they don't have any correlation to macro.

I'd watch Ramp as it moves over to Lever as well. They already have one of the best yield farm AMMs out there. They haven't been hacked, and you can borrow against farms as you earn interest on them. Lever will add leverage trading, which will bring speculators to the platform and increase liquidity. As long as you don't participate in the leverage, you can benefit as a lender by just holding yield farms.

Tips to make money in the bear market ---> https://twitter.com/alucard0x