Europe closing back up isn't the real reason for the crypto dip. It's because all of the fake ass shills decided to make a "wen bear market" video all at the same damn time. Seriously. These fucking schlups really do sniff each other's butts all day.
Every time this happens, there's a selloff. Chicken or the egg, but they coincide. I'm sure it has to do with a few whales getting scared, taking profits and wrecking the leveraged noobs trading on Bybit. The price oracles cascade those prices over to other exchanges, and voila. Dip.
If you're wondering whether there's going to be a boom/bust cycle a la 2017 or a supercycle a la one of these idiots forecasting ultrabullishness on Youtube, the answer is neither. And you shouldn't listen to any of these morons who put these videos up. They're going to say whatever is necessary to pump their own bags.
You better believe Bitboy is going to be selling while he's telling you to hodl just like Jaime Dimon was buying while he was telling everyone else bitcoin is a scam.
Just the fact that we have discussions of boombust vs. supercycle as a binary option pair means we won't have either. All else being equal, the people who believe either side will play off of each other, reducing volatility as the natural market cycle plays itself out. The answer is somewhere in the middle.
People across the world need to establish positions in bitcoin right now. It's not a choice. The buy pressure in Venezuela, Nigeria, the Philippines, and other nation-states with weak currencies now has more room to express itself. Anyone with a computer can get crypto now. And the important part, awareness, is rising. As long as awareness rises for a superior product, you can expect buy side pressure for that product to increase.
Now those driving the insanity, the "speculators," also need to establish positions. This is not a choice, believe it or not, so many of the speculators aren't really speculators. Rich folks in the West need to hold their wealth positions in order to continue doing business. If businesspeople in Dubai or China outpace businesspeople in America buying bitcoin, well then American businesspeople will be at a huge disadvantage when doing business across borders and domestically. Eventually, the bitcoin holders won't even be able to conduct business with non-bitcoin holders. They'll be too poor.
That's the only question to consider when you are trying to determine bull/bear cycles. When the need for bitcoin dies down, that is, most interested parties who want it have it, then the market will go bearish. The folks who needed it and bought early will cash out on those who came later.
However, the bag holders will not be able to capitulate. If you have 6 houses, you can only sell 5. There's no asset that's more valuable to you than that last house, because it's the one keeping you from being homeless. There will be more bitcoin holders at the end of this cycle because the superiority of bitcoin as a store of value is more well-known. If you trade it back into fiat, you lose even more. So there won't be an 80% drop like last time.
Here's the last element to consider that no one does consider — time. The time frame in which bitcoin rises to its peak levels will determine whether the end of the bull run looks more like an Olympic ski slope or a neighborhood hillside. The faster it goes up, the faster it will come down. If we get that huge run up at the end of the bull market, we can expect a much more tumultuous downside. The bear market will last longer, because more people will get rekt. But if we get what I think, a bunch of pullbacks because people are watching for that blow-off top, the bull market will last much longer.
And here's really the last thing to consider — education. Despite what these CNBC bitcoin noobs and Fedfags say, bitcoin has much more utility than a store of value. Education about the defi space will certainly contribute to the shape of the market cycle in the coming months and years. As more payment facilitators begin to take crypto and defi becomes ready for institutional investment, retail and business will choose to keep their crypto as crypto instead of cashing out to fiat. Defi didn't exist at all in 2017. Neither did crypto credit cards. No Utrust; No Travala. There was literally nothing to do but race for the crowded exits.
Do with this info what you will. But don't get scared or euphoric because of these mouth dragging Youtube idiots. The truth, as always, is in the middle.
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