Congratulations to everyone, including me, who held strong in BTC until now. You're feeling good as bitcoin crosses $18k, almost touching $19k as I write this. We could see $20k and a new ATH by the time you read it.
Now is the time to focus on the next phase, because bull markets take care of themselves. Pandemic stimulus benefits in the United States are set to end right on the Christmas holidays on December 26th.
The first time that a set of benefits expired was September. It's not a coincidence that the altcoin market began to melt down at that same time. People were getting $600-1000 per week for free from the government in August, and a lot of that money went directly into crypto and the stock market. The second that shit stopped, the party was over.
I think we can expect something similar in January. In January, the eviction moratorium will expire. Unemployment benefits will expire. School loan moratoriums will expire. So all of the debt that has been building up since March ALL comes due in January. ALL OF IT. With interest that kept accruing since March. At the same time, the government pulls the rug on people who are still out of work. Not a good coupling. PLUS — 2020 crypto gains are going to Christmas gifts, and you know it.
Federal benefits stop December 26, 2020. Biden doesn't take office until January 20, 2021.
The shills are trying to say that 2021 will mimic 2017 exactly — bitcoin go up den alts go up duhh durr. That's why I hate those guys like Elliotrades and Bitboy — they seriously have no technical market analysis skills. Don't listen to folks who just got money being super lucky as early adopters and didn't trade for their gains. They won't be able to help you make money in 2021.
I do believe that the profits people are making in bitcoin now will eventually rain down on altcoins. The effect may not happen immediately, however. Or it may be muted because stimulus speculators won't be able to take part. Remember that crypto does not have the same protection as the traditional stock market — the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it will do anything to keep the traditional stock market afloat. Crypto is full on free market principles.
This analysis will change if Biden comes into the office in 2021 and immediately does policy, but that's not likely. The legislative body in the US is still split down party lines. It will be difficult to achieve quick consensus on anything. Even so, you still have a month of lame duck leadership with no stimulus between 12/26/2020 and 1/20/2021.
Just a short post to not get too happy too fast. Protect your gains, because there is a lot of political pressure against crypto coming down the pike. These forces will use anything they can — COVID, regulation, austerity, more COVID — to rain on your bitcoin parade. If you see a sideways market coming, it might be a good time to get your yield farms back online. Here's the reasoning for that.
I would also avoid a whole lot of staking at the beginning of the new year, especially those that lock up your funds. Wait until January dips the market, then pick up the broken pieces off the floor and stake and THOSE prices.
NOTFINANCIALADVICE DYOR BLAH BLAH BLAH STFU