Sounds like a Johnny Cash B-side, but it's the state of market psychology right now. If it turns out that the bull run is over, and you're letting permabulls fill your head with hopium, then you're going to end up traumatized from this experience.
If you don't want to read the entire analysis, here's the long and short of it. Market structure is not bullish until BTC is back above $50k. It needs to clear the 200 MA by Monday North America market open. Until I see BTC back above and confirm $50k, I'm working as if we're in a bear market.
What does this mean? It means I'm selling bounces, not getting hopeful. This strategy means I will miss any positive market movement between $42k-50k. That's fine with me. It's worth maintaining what I have gathered over these past few months.
Crypto Twitter will get you fuckt. It's full of trust fund Zoomers who are gambling with daddy's money.
Crypto Youtube will get you fuckt. It's full of trust fund Millennials who are gambling with daddy's money.
Crypto Tiktok will get you fuckt. It's full of broke ass teenagers gambling with their own money but they're still living with daddy so it doesn't matter.
If you're not in any of these categories, be careful. There's nothing wrong with being in cash until some bullish activity is confirmed. (All of this is assuming you don't know how to hedge.)
I'm fully aware that this entire article could be invalidated by a single green candle. If and when that happens, I'll be happy to change my tune. Guess what? Nothing wrong with changing an opinion based on new evidence. That's what you should do as an adult.
The Cycle Isn't Complete
So. We didn't have a blow off top for small alts. Litecoin didn't pump. The stock to flow model isn't done. We've seen dips below the 200 MA before in previous bull runs.
I'll give you all of this. But none of this is based on anything real that is happening right now. Right now, market structure is bearish and should be treated as such. That means we're looking for lower lows on bitcoin and alts to bleed out to something truly cringe inducing for those unlucky bagholders who ride all the way down.
That means sell bounces and wait for bullish confirmation.
What's Looking Up
People look to the news to see what the charts will do. This is backwards. Look to the charts to see what the news will do. What do I mean?
Bitcoin was bullish, and so news of crap like Elon Musk buying pumped the bags. But no one remembers any of the bad news during that time, do they?
When bitcoin is bearish, talk of Elon selling crashed the bags. But no one remembers any of the good news during that time, do they?
So right now, we have bad news hitting the market from all sides and the price is holding at around a $37k floor. This is bullish. My article about Fag Chair Jerome Powell announcing Fed CBDCs publicly got no attention. This is really bullish. The China news was garbage, but there is still news of the Fed possibly raising interest rates earlier than expected due to economic recovery. Their next meeting is on June 15 or 16. Rising interest rates, or even talk of rising rates, will absolutely kill the speculative trad market, which usually is bad for crypto.
This means news of the economy opening up should be bad from crypto. For some unknown reason, the crypto market is inversely tied to the COVID situation in Europe. Well, the media has decided to focus on the narrative of Europe opening back up. This should be really bad for crypto, but the price is holding like I said. Bullish.
Your Next Move
I would urge all readers to navigate bitcoin's next move putting your own financial situation front and center. If the next move is a dump, you're going to get megafuckt. If the next move is green, that means we probably have more time to earn money from crypto. Neither of those situations requires sitting in coins now hoping for good things. You don't have to predict anything. You can just react.
Most of the smart money is sitting in cash right now just waiting to see what the market will decide to do. The movement you see right now is all speculation — the few retail traders who still have money losing it to whales trading ranges and the institutions with long timescales buying to hold for decades.
But please do not be either encouraged or discouraged by any personality you see on social media. If they are on social media talking about this shit, they probably have been in crypto long enough to buy when ETH was $100. There is no way they can lose. But there is a way for you to lose — trading like them.
I'll be hoping for that green candle this Sunday just like you.
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YOUR GUIDE TO MAKING MONEY IN CRYPTO STARTS HERE ---> Making Money in Crypto Part 1
Why you should buy your Tesla (and everything else) in BTC ---> Why You Should Buy Tesla With Bitcoin
Find out why Chainlink 2.0 is a problem for your freedom ---> Why Chainlink Will Kill Crypto
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