ARK Invest has raised its forecast for the cost of bitcoin from $500,000 to $2.4 million by 2030, depending on market conditions.
This estimate was made by ARK analyst David Puell based on an updated methodology for predicting the price of bitcoin, while the company's previous forecasts ranged from $300,000 to $1.5 million over the same period.
(Projected bitcoin prices until 2030 based on the impact of possible capital flows. Source: APK Invest).
ARK Invest manages exchange-traded funds (ETFs), some of which buy shares of crypto companies and funds, as well as one of the issuers of bitcoin ETFs in the United States — ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), which manages more than $4.9 billion in bitcoin as of April 25, according to Sosovalue.
The head of the company, Katie Wood, has been predicting the cost of one bitcoin of more than $1 million by 2030 for several years. Her opinion is based on the unique decentralized qualities of the first cryptocurrency and the limited supply of 21 million coins.
David Newell is known in the crypto community for developing the popular Puell Multiple end indicator, designed to analyze long-term bitcoin market cycles based on the profitability of miners.
In its forecast, ARK suggests that there are six main sources of capital entering the bitcoin market:
- Institutional investments. ARK suggests that globally, institutional companies will allocate a share of their portfolio to bitcoin.
- Digital gold. This assumption means that bitcoin will be used by investors as an alternative to regular gold.
- A protective asset to hedge the value of capital in emerging markets. According to ARK, this bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital inflows.
- Government investments. The report notes states such as El Salvador and Bhutan accumulating bitcoin.
In 2021, El Salvador recognized bitcoin as legal tender. In recent years, the government, by decision of President Nayib Bukele, has been buying about 1 BTC per day. As of April 25, 6157 BTC (about $580 million at the current exchange rate) has been accumulated in El Salvador's wallet.
Bhutan has mined millions of dollars worth of bitcoins in recent years, relying on cryptocurrency as a means of supporting the economy. The kingdom's cryptocurrency is stored in the wallet of the mining state-owned company Druk Holding & Investments. According to the Arkham analytical platform for April 2025, Bhutan owns about $700 million worth of bitcoins at the current exchange rate.
5. Corporate bonds according to the type of the company's business model Strategy. ARK believes that other companies are integrating bitcoin into their corporate strategies. As of the end of 2024, 74 public companies held about $55 billion worth of bitcoins on their balance sheets. ARK expects an increase in capital inflows from this point of view, provided that the strategy shows positive dynamics over the next 6 years.
Strategy is the largest corporate holder of BTC in the world with a total bitcoin balance in the company's account of 538.2 thousand bitcoins (about 2.52% of the current issue), for which, over almost five years of purchases, it spent about $36.47 billion at an average purchase price of $67,766 per 1 BTC.
Strategy's bitcoin purchases are mainly funded by the placement of convertible bonds with a low or zero coupon rate. They can be exchanged for Strategy shares (MSTR) with a high premium to the placement price (up to 40-50%).
The model is effective when the BTC exchange rate increases: strengthening its position in cryptocurrencies allows Strategy to raise funds again on favorable terms. The main risk of the scheme is a sharp and prolonged drop in bitcoin, which may reduce interest in MSTR shares and make it difficult to place new bonds.
6. Financial services based on bitcoin. This option for capital inflows into bitcoin includes decentralized financial applications (DeFi). Analysts believe that this is one of the most important parts of the ecosystem.: "Such financial services on the blockchain are becoming increasingly important functions of the bitcoin ecosystem."
Puell concluded that the estimate of $500,000 to $2.4 million highlights the bitcoin deficit, limited to 21 million, and depends on the success of one or another capital inflow option.
