On Sunday, April 20, bitcoin (BTC) is trading near the $84,000 mark, the same place as at the end of last week. Experts analyzed the market situation and assessed the prospects for the movement of the bitcoin exchange rate for the next seven days.

"Sellers are still dominating". (BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov).

Over the past week, bitcoin has been moving in different directions. Since the beginning of the week, the price has fluctuated in the range of $83,000 -86,000, repeating the dynamics of the stock market. Growth attempts were limited to resistance around $86,000, while support remained at $82,970. The statements of the Fed chairman and the high correlation with the S&P 500 index had an impact.

After a pullback on Tuesday and a sideways movement on Wednesday, BTC recovered to $84,947 on April 17, but pulled back again on April 18 amid a weekend in the United States. On April 19, the exchange rate remains at $85,200. Buyers have broken through the descending trend line, and if they consolidate above $86,800, the target may be the $95,500 zone.

Do not forget that the daily and weekly timeframes are still dominated by sellers, which currently limits the growth of BTC and the activity of buyers. Failure to break through $86,800 still threatens to test the $80,000 level and even a possible return to the April low of $74,508. Much depends on Mr. Trump.

Fundamental factors.

The contradictory rhetoric of US President Donald Trump introduced significant uncertainty, making it difficult for investors to form medium-term trading strategies. His criticism of the Fed and demands for Jerome Powell to lower interest rates or leave office added to the tension.

Fed Representative Christopher Waller's warning about a possible increase in inflation to 5% due to the introduction of new tariffs increased the attractiveness of traditional inflationary assets, among which gold occupied a leading position.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in his speech in Chicago, noted the slowdown in the US economy and expressed concerns about the impact of new tariffs on inflation. He stressed the difficulties in fulfilling the Fed's dual mandate of maintaining both stable prices and maximum employment.

Geopolitical tensions persisted: despite China's signals of readiness for dialogue with the United States, the Trump administration initiated a new investigation into the possible imposition of tariffs on imports of critical minerals from China. In addition, China ordered its domestic airlines to suspend deliveries of Boeing aircraft, which reinforced the negative mood of market participants.

There was nervousness in the stock markets: the Dow Jones Industrial Average index closed in the red, and shares of UnitedHealth Group collapsed by 23% after the company lowered its forecast for the year, which dragged down the entire healthcare sector.

Gold continued to show strength, updating historical highs due to the weakening of the dollar, rising inflation expectations and worsening geopolitical tensions. It reached $3,357 per troy ounce, while bitcoin was stalling in anticipation of a new batch of news.

Expectations for the next week.

In the week from April 21 to April 25, 2025, several important economic events are expected that may affect the dollar exchange rate and US stock indexes.:

On April 22, the index of leading economic indicators in the United States for March will be published, which is an important indicator of future economic trends.

On April 23, business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors will be published, which are key indicators of the state of the economy.

On April 24, data will be released on basic orders for durable goods and the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, which are important indicators of the state of the manufacturing sector and the labor market.

On April 25, the United States will present consumer inflation expectations and consumer sentiment indices from the University of Michigan, which will give an idea of consumer confidence in the economy and may influence investor sentiment.

Several FOMC members will speak during the week, which may provide additional signals about the Fed's future monetary policy.

According to BitRiver estimates, bitcoin needs a combination of several favorable factors to resume its steady growth.:

• President Trump's decline in activity;
• positive dynamics in stock markets;
• Continued weakening of the US dollar index, which has already reached three-year lows.

 "The situation on the markets remains tense". (Alexander Peresichan, Head of Tehnobit).

The crypto market remains under pressure from macroeconomic news and demonstrates high volatility, but within the framework of the flat. We see wide fluctuations in the exchange rate, but there are practically no changes on the horizon of the week.

Bitcoin opened the week at just above $85,100 and ended the 7-day period at the same level. But over the past week, bitcoin has dropped to $83,000 several times and once tried to break through to $87,000, but the negative macroeconomic agenda did not allow it to gain a foothold.

The fear and concern of investors related to the tariff wars of Donald Trump continues to rule the ball in the crypto market. The introduction of new duties on Chinese imports has raised serious concerns among market participants about a possible recession and a deterioration in global trade relations. These concerns have increased risk perception and reduced the chances of monetary policy easing by the Fed, which in turn has put pressure on risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Investors took a wait-and-see attitude, and the fear and greed index remained in the "fear" zone all week.

The technical picture is also not encouraging: in the charts, more and more market participants see signs of the formation of a "bear flag" — a figure that often precedes a decline. Against this background, it can be expected that the market capitalization will drop even lower if there is no significant positive momentum in the coming weeks.

The situation on the markets remains tense. Any new signals about the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China can again further bring down sentiment and provoke a sell-off. Altcoins and memcoins remain particularly vulnerable, as their capitalization can rapidly decline even with the slightest signs of instability.

Ethereum has worsened its position over the past week, dropping into the range from $1,539 to $1,690. The Altcoin Season index (CMC Altcoin Season) dropped to 17 points out of 100 altogether — a zone of sharp "anti-altcoin" sentiment.

On the horizon of May, if the situation remains unchanged, bitcoin may continue to move in the range of $80,000 — $90,000. However, in case of new shocks, the market may well test levels around $74,000 — $76,000.

On the other hand, if a strong positive trigger appears — for example, a major entry of institutional money or monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve - we will again see attempts to break through to the upside. In the meantime, the general background remains neutral-negative, and market participants, apparently, are not ready to take action without a good reason.