Good day everyone,
I hope you are all having a good day, welcome to CryptoGod-1's blog on all things crypto. In this post I will be concluding my look at the potential impact of a Trump or a Harris win in the upcoming United States Presidential election, while also looking at who crypto voters are in favour of winning.
You can find the first part of this story here: Trump v Harris: Crypto Perspective
You can find the second part of this story here: Trump v Harris: Crypto Perspective: Part 2
The Race
With the November 4th election approaching, the chances of Donald Trump winning back the White House is a topic of major discussion. Polymarket, a popular prediction market platform, is showing Trump as the clear favourite to win the election. While prediction markets are not definitive, they are indicative of current public sentiment, but it is important to note that Polymarket likely boasts a user base which is more digitally native and pro-crypto, so it could be biased toward Trump.
Trump has selected J.D. Vance as his vice president candidate, with the former venture capitalist displaying a strong pro-crypto stance. Vance held between $100,000 and $250,000 worth of crypto on Coinbase in 2022 according to his financial disclosures for 2022. He has already made his views clear and wants to overhaul how Washington’s top two regulators oversee crypto. He has previously criticised Biden's infrastructure law that imposed tax reporting requirements on crypto firms and his selection sits well with the pro crypto stance Trump has taken.
Trump’s relationship with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies has come a long way since his initial scepticism. Previously he had claimed Bitcoin was a scam impacting the value of the dollar, but he has since had his successful venture into crypto-based NFTs which generated million of dollars in revenue for the Trump campaign, and his most recent venture World Liberty Financial. This venture, along with his three sons, aims to raise $300 million and promote cryptocurrency adoption. However it was met with backlash due to technical issues on launch and concern by industry experts that it could cause further damage to the DeFi industry reputation.
As part of his election campaign Trump has also been accepting campaign donations in Bitcoin. He met with Bitcoin miners in June and posted on his Truth Social account that Bitcoin Miners may be “our last line of defence against a CBDC.” Trump also added that he wishes for all the remaining Bitcoin to be “made in the USA”, and although this shows a lack of understanding on the Bitcoin minting process, at least he is showing a positive attitude towards the industry.
At the recent Bitcoin 2024 conference held by Bitcoin Magazine Trump reiterated his positive approach for crypto and made a number of promises if he is to win the election. These are seen as positive steps for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general, but it is important to look at Trump’s economic policies at large. They have consistently combined tax cuts with protectionist measures and during his previous term his administration managed the expansion of the money supply with relative discipline compared to his Presidential peers. That was until the COVID-19 pandemic threw a spanner in the works. This does not give a guarantee for Trump’s future monetary and fiscal policy in a potential second term, but his stance on tariffs and trade policies is inflationary and could affect geopolitical stability and the U.S. dollar’s status as a reserve currency. These factors collectively shape the broader economic environment in which Bitcoin operates.
While Trump previously indicated he would not oust Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before the end of his term, nothing is guaranteed. There is the potential that Trump would like to put someone else in place to lower rates and ease the monetary constraints on companies and households. This would likely be very positive for digital assets and Bitcoin.
Pro-crypto campaigns have received substantial fundraising support from major super political action committees (PACs) such as Fairshake, raising $161m in total. These PAC work as an organisation established by a corporation or other special interest to raise money from individuals for a political campaign. They have been spending $13.3m to oppose anti-crypto Democrats (91%), support pro-crypto Democrats (5%), and Republicans (4%), and transfer $15.4m to Defend American Jobs (98.7% support for pro-crypto Republican) and Protect Progress (98% support pro-crypto Democrats) super PACs. Polls have shown that regulations are still considered the biggest reason investors have been steering clear of this asset class. The approval and launch of spot BTC and ETH ETF have helped to improve this scenario, as well as S-1 filings for Solana.
Kamala Harris meanwhile has revealed her imitative towards getting Black male voters on her side with a plan to create an “opportunity economy” for Black male voters. Within this plan she has included a promise to protect digital assets, although she has not specified exactly how she would go about doing that. Within the agenda it was stated:
“She will make sure owners of and investors in digital assets benefit from a regulatory framework.”
It was pointed out by the Harris campaign that around 20% of Black men in the U.S. have owned or currently hold cryptocurrencies. Her more more balanced approach to the crypto industry would represent a departure from the stance associated with the Biden administration, and in particular it would highlight the positions of figures like Senators Warren, Secretary Yellen, and SEC Chair Gensler, who have been more critical of the sector.
As a presidential candidate, Harris is clearly aware of the risk of alienating the 50 million or so Americans who have engaged with cryptocurrencies. However, her approach has shown a preference towards the black community, in particular black men. While this is perfectly fine and her initiatives such as up to one million forgivable loans for Black entrepreneurs, new teaching opportunities, a National Health Equity Initiative for Black men, and the legalization of recreational marijuana are positive, some have viewed this as her campaign now alienating other Americans. The lack of clarity over her plans for cryptocurrency has also left many in the industry displeased.
Some Democrats are already advocating for more positive crypto legislation and this could be an opportunity for Vice President Harris to thread a similar path. Her past affiliations suggest a potentially cautious approach and some have even gone as far as stating a Harris presidency might be less favourable to Bitcoin and digital assets than a Trump presidency. This remains to be seen but she has not found the favourable support within the cryptocurrency community which Trump has.
It is clear that Trump’s economic policies could significantly impact Bitcoin, but given Trump’s pro-crypto stance along with J.D. Vance as VP there should undoubtably be a more favourable regulatory environment for digital assets. Trump’s presidency could create a mixed but potentially advantageous landscape for Bitcoin, while a Harris administration is more likely to create a more cautious approach. Her potential presidency could be seen less favourable to digital assets than a Trump presidency and her latest attempt to turn those voters to her side may not work out as planned. Prioritising a specific part of the digital assets industry instead of giving a firm outlook for the entire industry is unlikely to appeal to the wider public who have an interest in cryptocurrencies and the wider digital assets market.
Recent polls have shown that Trump is leading the race, and her campaign strategy is more based towards winning over men and Republicans at this stage. In a poll conducted by Fox news it was shown that Trump leads Harris by 2% and anxieties have risen in the Democratic camp given Trump's rise in the polls over the last month. A senior Democratic aide noted:
"This was always going to be a tight race...That doesn’t mean we’re not losing sleep over it."
With both campaigns nearing the final stretch, the race between the former president and the current vice president remains tight. Most importantly for Democrats is that both Harris and Trump are statistically tied in the seven crucial battleground states that will decide the race. The narrowing polls come as high food and rent prices continue to worry Americans while Trump continues to capitalise on fears related to migrants crossing the southern border. The support from men of all races is where Harris is shown to fall behind Trump the most, and the plan for the Democrats is for Harris to outspend Trump on digital and television ads given their large resources of cash. There are no plans right now for Harris to narrow her public appearances to the most critical states, and it will be a close race come voting day. Whether its Trump or Harris who wins the election, it is likely their policies and stance on crypto and digital assets will play a major role in who wins the White House.
Have a great day.
Peace. CryptoGod-1.
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