Good day everyone,
I hope you are all having a good day, welcome to CryptoGod-1's blog on all things crypto related. In this post I will be taking a deep dive into the historical prices of Bitcoin, and other tokens, on New Years Day. Markets have tended to rally during the Christmas week due to the festive spirit along with the time of year fuelling optimism and increased spending.
Bitcoin on New Years
With New Year's fast approaching, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at the historical price trends of Bitcoin on this particular day. There have often been rumours abound that when Santa Clause appears, there is a rally in the markets. Historical Data for the S&P 500 showed that the US equity index has seen returns of about 1%, 1.2% and 0.8% in 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively.
In terms of our favourite crypto asset, Bitcoin, the festive cheer translates into a less clear market outlook for returns. Over the same period of 2020, 2021, and 2022, Bitcoin made a return of 35.9% in 2020 before two down years of -6.9% and -1% respectively. When looking at the data over the last decade, it is clear to see that there have been loses as often as there have been gains in the festive week. The difference is, when the market rallies over the festive period in crypto, it really rallies.
In 2013 a gain of 19.5% was recorded, while in 2016 Bitcoin rose by 11.3%. In 2020 the largest gains were recorded, and many have been praying for Santa Clause to sparkle his magic once again this festive period to ensure the new year begins on a high. The odds are in favour of a decline, with 6/10 festive periods ending in the red. If there were to be gains, there they would likely be in the high figures, with the lowest gains on record in this period coming in at 8.2% in 2017.
It is also clear how the four year market cycles work in the crypto space when looking at this Bitcoin data, with 2021 being the year which broke the two downtrends followed by two uptrends. This generally translated into three years of bullish runs followed by one year of bearish correction in the wider market. It is therefore considered that Bitcoin would currently be in a bullish phase from January 2023 until December 2025, although that is speculation for now. The chart below shows how Bitcoin rallied 170% in 2023 despite several lawsuits, regulatory challenges, and heightened scrutiny. Even if the festive period ends in the red, there should be plenty of optimism going into 2024 with Bitcoin.
Ethereum on New Years
Another interesting token to look at is Ethereum, with ETH having had some interesting trends happening during previous festive periods. While Ethereum has not been in existence for as long as Bitcoin, there is still enough data to make some interesting observations. Ethereum has seen a rise on five of eight occasions during the festive period, with highs reaching as much as 29.6% in 2017 and lows as low as -5.4% in 2021. With the greens overcoming the reds more often than not, the festive period has generally been seen as a bullish one for Ethereum.
Ethereum price movements between 2015 and 2018 also highlighted how the crypto asset diverged from Bitcoin's price movement during the Holiday season and follows its own trajectory.
Have a great day and a wonderful New Years.
Peace. CryptoGod-1.
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