A few hours ago, Cointelgraph posted an article in which he informs us that interest in bitcoin has been growing in recent days; the analysis is based on Google Trends data that show how the terms associated with the "bitcoin" search key have soared in search volumes. Among the search keys most click on google there are those related to the upcoming halving, that is to the halving of the reward for the miners that will be next spring. Often this type of metric has been associated with an imminent price spike, but in this case things seem to be different, the same phenomenon, in fact, in the face of a different context can easily produce dissimilar results compared to what happened in the past. What I seem to see is the tendency on the part of numerous sites in the sector to try to sustain the price by spreading certain news; if this were the case this type of behavior would not be serious or even less correct, especially if we think that not everyone has the skills to operate on the market and that to do so they rely on the analyzes they find published on the sites of the sector. I personally believe that the surge in research volumes is attributable to all those who bought on the explosion of bullish volatility that followed the announcement in which Xi Jinping declared that he considered blockchain technology as crucial for China's development; all these people, probably still beginners, at this moment will be experiencing the weakness expressed by the market with deep malaise and here they have therefore rushed to google to look for information that can somehow reassure them. If this interpretation turns out to be correct, it is very likely that in the coming days, or weeks, there will be a strong dump powered by panic selling; an opportunity to buy at fixed prices, and after all it is a sales period, for all the savvy users, while the neophytes will lose heavily.
As they say in the jargon, those who know the market are waiting to "buy the blood" of all those who have improvised traders; A hard lesson for the neophytes, but which will help them grow and mature, after all we have all gone from such experiences; a final note before closing this article is then reserved for the upcoming halving. While a large part of the community is selling the idea that this will cause a new price spike, and moreover until now it has always been this way, some (few to say the truth) analysts are trying to advise against building too high expectations. Those who follow the market know very well that recently many have remained with the match in hand following the halving of litecoin; even for LTC there was a rumor that the miners' reward would bring this coin back to historic highs, but those who wanted to bet on this scenario, however, have so far accumulated significant losses. As I always love to repeat every time I have the opportunity certain correlations are valid only until they stop working; this means that operating on the basis of historical correlations can be a good idea a certain number of times, but then when suddenly the correlation is denied what happens is that very heavy losses are collected. All this does not mean, of course, that bitcoin prices are bound to plummet forever, nor that the market is dying, it only means that you must always remember that we are playing a game here in a long-term perspective and that your you should make assessments on a time horizon of years, not a few months or, worse still, weeks. Waiting for the time to allow us to understand how things really are, therefore, we just have to continue to observe the evolution of things and remain patiently out of business until the situation becomes clear.
