Sirwin
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The State of Bitcoin - 2022 Outlook for Crypto - Your Daily Crypto Indicators and Technical Analysis

By Keeef | CryptoFactor | 4 Jan 2022


Crypto Indicators

 

Bitcoin Price on posting $47,261

Fear & Greed Index 20/100 - EXTREME FEAR (Buying Opportunity)

Bull Market Support Band - $48,300 to $51,700

Stock-to-Flow Model Value - $75,500 

Bitcoin Tweet - 90,000 - About average - Long Term Trending Upwards

Bitcoin Bubble Index - 80/150 

7 Day Relative Strength Index -47/100

100 Day Relative Strength Index - 49/100

Previous 24 Hours Liquidations - $181M (Majority - SHORT positions Liquidated)

 

The State of Bitcoin

Firstly, it's a good idea to take a look at the overall picture building within the Crypto Market.  Key indicators that we should note are that in the short term we have continued to lose support in the short term however a final bullish indicator remains intact, one which I am keenly watching as should this last barrier break, we may be in for a support move to the downside to the order of a $42,000 Bitcoin ($BTC).  

That indicator is the long term bullish ascending wedge visible on the weekly time frame for the BTC/BUSD pair I'm watching.  This coupled with the sharp downward correction in the Fear and Greed Index hints that the market is teetering and arguably within a phase of EXTREME FEAR, though note that awareness and adoption have been steadily rising, along with the Stock-to-Flow valuation of in excess of 50% of the current prices, I think that we still have a very good opportunity for accumulation at this point.  We are seeing retail capitulation right now, and the smart money is buying.

Personally, I have been loading up on Bitcoin over the previous weeks when buying opportunities present in the dips.  For now, I'm generally happy with my position in Bitcoin and Alts, and I am as invested as I am comfortable with at this stage for a long term HODLer.  That being said, looking at the failure to immediately reclaim the bull market support band, which sits between $48,300 and $51,700, we are likely in for a long stint of sideways or even short term bearish action before we see a blow-off top, perhaps in Q2 or 3 of this fine new year that is 2022.  Happy New Year by the way!

Bullish news I think that we can expect for the Crypto Space in 2022 could include:

  • 1 Billion Crypto Holder worldwide and continuing adoption and awareness
  • USDC Stable Coin to Flip Tether perhaps, based on concerns around the Tether collateralization or indeed the lack of
  • Game Coins such as DAR, AXS, SAND and FTM to pump? 
  • Increased FUD by regulators are DAO's and Crypto
  • $100,000 Bitcoin (Average price)
  • More Crypto ETFs and a wall of institutional money

How I'm playing it

In a word: Patiently.  The smart money is buying from the weaker retail paper hands.   As I mentioned before I cooling off on my investing in Crypto, but I will continue to DCA an amount on a weekly basis for the next few months likely, and continue to accumulate less aggressively, but regularly. I make use of NEXO to earn interest on my Crypto while waiting for the reclaim and retest of the Bull Market Support Band which will likely be End Q2 of this year.  You can get $25 of BTC for free when you open your Nexo account through my link below. There's also $200 of free $SG token up for grabs for a limited time so get them whilst you can. You can trade it for ETH or anything you like on Uniswap if you're not interested in HODLing SG long term.  

If you're not following me here already, please consider doing so and I'll keep you up to date with posts just like this! Please do remember that none of the above is financial advice, you should always do your due diligence. 

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Keeef
Keeef

Cryptocurrency Journalist, Enthusiast and Commentator


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