What awaits Bitcoin in a year?

By CryptoMax1387 | Cryptocurrency_World | 15 Jan 2025


Let's talk not just about forecasts, but about a real model that is based on mathematics and data.

This is not a “rainbow” chart or a technical analysis. This is a quantile regression based on the logarithm of price and time.

There are no “drawn” lines here — only pure statistics, processed on the basis of more than 750,000 bitcoin price data.

If the numbers don't seem optimistic enough, don't blame the model. This is what Bitcoin tells us based on its data.

What do we see?

1. There is a 95% chance that the price will remain above $65,000 in a year. Even if the market remains in consolidation, this is a solid support area.

That is, there is only a 5% chance that the bears waiting for bitcoin at $30k will be right)

2. There is a 50% chance that Bitcoin will rise to $109,000 or higher. This is a median forecast that takes into account the entire history of price movement.

3. There is a 20% chance that the price will reach $171,000 or more. A scenario that already feels like a real goal.

4. And for those who like to dream: there is a 1% chance that the price will soar above $400,000.

For comparison:

• In 2013 and 2017, the peaks were at the level of 0.9999 quantile.

• But the April 2021 peak reached 0.9954.

This means that the model does not just capture the maximum, it shows the probability of reaching these levels.

This model is not a “hopium” or an attempt to draw a perfect graph. It is based on data, not emotions.

Unlike other models, it takes into account the entire history of bitcoin and tells us what to expect in terms of statistics, not desires.

So are you ready for these numbers? Do you think we'll see $200k in a year? Or maybe it's time to aim for $250k and above?

Share your thoughts — where are we going next?

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CryptoMax1387
CryptoMax1387

Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast || Crypto News || Fundamental Analysis || Chart Analysis || Opinions on Altcoins & ICOs


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