This price implies a bitcoin market capitalization of $4 trillion.

And it is important to understand that to achieve such figures, you do not need to inject $2 trillion in net liquidity. Why? Let's get this straight.

How do capitalization calculations work?

Capitalization is calculated using the formula:
Capitalization = Asset price × The total number of tokens.

But the asset price is set based on the last transaction. This means that even a relatively small volume of purchases at a higher price can greatly shift capitalization.

An example from Bank of America:

BofA claims that in traditional markets, it only takes $1 to $2 billion in liquidity (50-100 ratio) to increase a company's capitalization by $100 billion.

What about cryptocurrency?

In the crypto market, the coefficients are slightly lower: from 20 to 50 times. This is due to lower liquidity and higher volatility.

What does this mean for Bitcoin?

If bitcoin's current capitalization is $2 trillion and the target is $4 trillion, then the difference is an additional $2 trillion.

Taking into account the coefficient of 20-50, to achieve this, you will need:

• Minimum: $40 billion of net liquidity
• Maximum: $100 billion of net liquidity

Thus, even the minimum bar looks achievable.

Where can we get this money?

1. ETF
In 2024, cryptocurrency ETFs have already attracted about $35 billion in liquidity. At the moment, this figure has grown to $40 billion. If demand continues and grows, ETFs may well attract an additional $40-50 billion in 2025.

2. MicroStrategy
MicroStrategy continues to actively buy bitcoin. For example, from January 21 to January 26, 2025, they bought another 10,107 BTC worth $1.1 billion. And this is far from the limit, as they regularly raise capital through the issuance of stocks and bonds.

3. The Fed and liquidity
If the Federal Reserve starts a quantitative easing cycle, it will seriously facilitate the flow of capital into risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Under favorable conditions, achieving the goal of $40-50 billion in net assets will become even more realistic.

Important point: market conditions

Of course, favorable macro conditions are important for achieving such goals.

This includes:

• Reduction of inflationary pressure.
• Positive macro data.
• Availability of liquidity in the markets.

If all these factors add up, the goal of $200,000 per bitcoin and a capitalization of $4 trillion will become quite realistic by the end of 2025.

The whole strength of the cryptocurrency market lies in its dynamics. To reach the goal of $200,000, you don't need to pour in trillions. All that is needed is relatively small injections of capital. (from $40 to $100 billion) against the background of growing demand. ETFs, institutional players like MicroStrategy, and possible actions by the Fed create all the prerequisites for this.

What do you think about this? How do you like such calculations and forecasts? Share your opinion.