It's a good question, and it's really more complicated than just "alts will take off after halving."

Historically, we have been accustomed to 4-year cycles, but this cycle is developing differently due to a new factor - institutional capital through ETFs and Fed policy.

To understand whether there will be an altseason and what it will be like, it is necessary to decompose the situation into key components.:

What is happening with the liquidity now?

The Fed has not yet launched QE, but QT is already slowing down, and the market expects a rate cut in 2025.

Institutionalization in Bitcoin through ETFs is a new phenomenon that has not been seen in past cycles. So far, they mostly hold BTC without flowing into alts.

Markets expect a soft policy, but its strength will depend on how much the economy slows down.

The main point is that without a strong influx of liquidity (QE), alts will grow, but not in the style of 2021.

Conditions for the launch of quantitative easing (QE) by the Fed and the current economic situation

The main factors driving the Fed to launch QE are:

1. High unemployment rate: If unemployment is significantly higher than the natural rate (usually estimated at 4-5%), the Fed may take measures to stimulate employment.

2. Low inflation or deflation: Inflation below the Fed's target (about 2%) or deflationary trends may prompt the Fed to act to prevent an economic downturn.

Current indicators of the US economy:

• Unemployment: In February 2025, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, which is in line with forecasts and is within the natural range.

• Inflation: According to Wells Fargo economists, inflation is expected to reach 2.5-2.6% in 2025, which is slightly higher than the Fed's 2% target.

Current economic indicators do not indicate the need to launch QE:

• Unemployment is at an acceptable level and does not indicate significant problems in the labor market.

• Inflation is slightly above the target level, which makes the use of QE unlikely, as the Fed seeks to prevent the economy from overheating.

 The probability of launching QE in 2025

Basic scenario (60%) – QT will be stopped, rates will start to decrease, but QE will not be launched.

This will support the markets, but will not cause a massive flow of liquidity into risky assets.

The optimistic scenario (30%) is that the Fed will launch QE in the second half of 2025.

This will trigger a full-fledged altseason, similar to 2017/2021.

Bearish scenario (10%) – the Fed will keep the rate high and inflation will accelerate again.

🔹 Then bitcoin and alts will pull back, the market will remain under pressure.

At the moment, the main scenario is to stop QT and lower rates without full QE.

Altseason under the baseline scenario (without QE, but with lower rates)

In this scenario, the altseason will be, but not in the style of a “manic pump.”

How will the capital be distributed?

BTC will first take away the main liquidity – institutions will buy it through ETFs.

ETH and top alts (SOL, AVAX, BNB, L2, RWA) will start to rise later when Bitcoin slows down.

Memcoins and low-liquid alts will grow locally, but without a strong hype.

The speculative wave will be weaker than in 2021 because markets remain cautious.

What did it look like in previous cycles?

An analysis of historical data shows that the real altseason begins when liquidity massively overflows from BTC to alts.

But without QE, liquidity will remain limited, and capital will flow into top altos and fundamentally strong projects instead of a mindless pump.

4️⃣ Price forecast

📌 BTC: $140K–200K
📌 ETH: $8K–12K
📌 SOL: $400–700
📌 Top altcoins: 3–5x
Memcoins and microalts: local pumps, but without 50-100x

5️⃣ Bottom line: should we wait for the altseason?

Yes, but it will be more restrained than in 2021.

Without QE, there will be no massive FOMO, as in previous cycles.

The main trigger is if the Fed goes into full–fledged QE.

Conclusion: alts will grow, but the main movement will go to the top assets, not to mindless pumps.

If the Fed turns on the printing press, then we will see a real altseason, where any kind of trash grows: both a cat and a dog.