I wouldn't call this a "bullish forecast," but rather a working hypothesis worth keeping in mind while the market remains uncertain.

Looking at the structure, Bitcoin currently looks very similar to what we've already seen in stocks—specifically in Google and NVIDIA.

The logic is simple and free of rose-tinted glasses.

The market goes through:
— an impulse
— a correction
— an attempt at continuation
— and then a deep retracement to key moving averages

In similar phases, Google and Nvidia showed:
— a retest of local highs
— the formation of a macro lower high
— and only afterward—a move toward long-term moving averages (even down to the 200-week SMA), already in a different market regime.

Applying this logic to Bitcoin:

The bullish scenario here is not about immediately soaring to new all-time highs.

Instead, it's that:
— a liquidity sweep below current lows is possible
— followed by a recovery rally
— without making a new all-time high
— forming a lower macro peak

And only after that could the market begin a full-fledged cooling phase with a target around the 200-week SMA.

It's important to spell this out loud because:
— such a scenario breaks the expectations of both sides
— bulls are waiting for an ATH
— bears are waiting for an immediate crash
— and the market often chooses a third path

What would this lead to?

To an environment where patience and risk management are more important than guessing the direction.
Where growth is possible, but it's not necessarily "yours."
And where every upward impulse is not a reason to relax, but a reason to think.

I'm not claiming this will definitely happen.
I'm keeping this scenario as one of the likely ones—and that's exactly why I'm acting cautiously.