In the first week of the year, markets are pricing in expectations and positions more than data. There are no major developments that will increase volatility. Volatility will be limited on Wednesday, and relatively more so on Friday compared to other days. This week, it's more realistic to expect balance rather than surprises from macroeconomic data. Credit spreads are the additional risk premium that companies have to pay when borrowing compared to US Treasury bonds. I see this as a "stress meter" in the market: it widens if risk perception increases, and narrows if there is relief. In the last 5 years, despite major shocks such as the pandemic and interest rate hikes, spreads have not permanently deteriorated. At the point we are at today, the credit market is pricing in a controlled slowdown rather than an impending severe crisis (for now). There is no major risk in spreads in the short term yet.

Core PCE is the inflation indicator that the Fed values ​​most; it measures persistent price pressure in the economy, excluding food and energy. I read this data as the "true trend" of inflation. In the last 5 years, we saw a sharp jump after the pandemic, followed by a significant downward trend. Today we are still above the Fed's 2% target, but the direction is clear: inflation is subsiding, the problem is the level, not the speed. Inflation is currently sticky. This eliminates the expectation of consecutive rate cuts. It pushes us towards a scenario of one cut equaling three passes, another cut equaling two passes, etc. The next quarterly data will be released on January 22, 2026; a figure below expectations would strengthen the rate cut scenario. As a bonus, let's look at the CME Group's Fed Rate Forecast data. With 24 days until the next meeting, and based on current data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 83.4%. A potential US government shutdown is on the agenda, meaning a near future devoid of data. If the Fed is again detached from data (non-farm payrolls, inflation, etc.), it will be reluctant to act. This could increase uncertainty in the markets. In short, no data means uncertainty, risk-off.

Normally, when the Real 10-year interest rate moves into positive territory, gold should weaken. But since 2022, this relationship has broken down. In the region I've marked, gold remains strong despite positive real interest rates. This is because the classic "interest rate-inflation" equation has shifted to a geopolitical risk + reserve security mode. Furthermore, the carry trade paradigm is being dismantled. The BOJ's interest rate hikes are questioning cheap yen funding, increasing financial system risk. Gold is no longer just a low-interest rate game; it's being priced as a geopolitical and systemic risk hedge. We understand the general theme: the paradigm is changing, and with a risk-off mode in the market, is commodity the best hedge (or not?).

It's important to remember that gold is a leader among commodities. Just as other commodities with higher beta coefficients have risen faster than gold, they will fall even deeper when there's a decline (we already saw this last week). The real problem is that all precious metals are rising along with gold, especially silver, which is reaching historical highs. Historically, every period where silver has "outperformed" gold has been followed by very large crises (economic crises, wars, etc.). Therefore, 2026 is a year in which we need to manage our money and risk better than ever. Oil (USOIL) prices below $50 have only been seen during crises (especially in the recent past). A close below this level would require a reassessment of macroeconomic data and a reassessment of risk mitigation.

Indices started the new year with limited positive gains, but the rise is not uniform. Looking at the SP500, it closed above the rising trend support (6,858). As long as it remains above this level, the SP500 is expected to maintain its upward trend. A close above 6,945 could open up room for movement towards 7500+ (however, the stocks driving the index are still limited). On the other hand, a close below 6,762 could lead to a deepening of selling in the SP500. On the Nasdaq side, we see a break in the rising trend. Momentum is negative, along with the RSI. The resistance level to watch is 25,899. Support is at 24,800, the FRVP high-volume trading level. A close below 24,800 could lead to a deepening of selling. In short, the short-term trading range on the Nasdaq is 24,800 - 25,900.

Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a strategy of making purchases in fixed amounts at specific intervals, instead of using all capital at once when investing. Following this strategy, let me share three stocks I've accumulated in my long-term portfolio:

GOOGL —> Solid ratios, growth-oriented (low debt, strong cash flow, robust business model).
JNJ —> Dividend and defensive balance (healthcare sector, strong cash flow).
LMT —> Geopolitically driven structural growth (defense against war risk).

In Bitcoin, the trend won't turn positive unless short-term investors are happy. Bitcoin's STH RP is 99,000, SMA365 is 101,000, and DMA111 is also 101,000. The cost basis for 1-3 month investors is 99,000, and the cost basis for 6-12 month investors is also 99,000. This is what we call "Confluence." Multiple data points (technical, on-chain, and sentiment) suggest that for the trend in Bitcoin to turn positive, it needs to break above the 99,000-101,000 region. Looking at BTC in the short term, technical data suggests that after at least two daily closes above 92,000, an upward movement towards 101,000 could open up. Coinbase Premiums (BTC & ETH) have fallen from -0.17 to nearly 0 in the last 3 days, showing limited positive movement. We've already confirmed this with ETF inflows on January 2, 2026 (BTC +471M and ETH +174M). The levels I'll be watching for Bitcoin this week are 89,000 down, 92,000 mid, and 101,000 up.

At the beginning of the year, markets are seeking balance, not speed. The macro side is calm, but geopolitical risks are increasing. Limited volatility in commodities may await us next week. Institutions are calm, and BTC and ETH ETFs closed positively on the last trading day of the week (the only positive news for crypto this week).

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.