My Thoughts on Current Markets-135


There is a wonderful chart on Nasdaq and the chart tells us whether to continue or not. Technical analysis is a two-way indicator. What is important is that it explains what can happen when certain thresholds are crossed and the risks when they are not. When we look at the weekly chart, the Nasdaq weekly period is in an upward channel starting from 2023. Again, when it reaches the top of this channel, there is a certain retreat in the past. However, in this retreat, for example, the retreat we made last month, it found support in our 21 and 55-week moving averages and came up again and made a new peak. We have now reached an important resistance zone inside this medium-term channel. By the way, let me remind you that there is non-agricultural employment data this week. Maybe the market may want to wait for it. In this sense, if you look at the Nasdaq chart, it is possible to interpret this chart as promising two things at once. First of all, what I see very clearly is that although there is a possibility of pressure from around 17000 now, just as it has suffered sales from the channel resistance before, this chart advises us this in the short term. 16100 is short term and 15000 is medium term trend support. Therefore, we will connect the risk of whether the correction in Nasdaq below 16100 will expand downwards or not to 16100, which is our short-term tracking support.

Therefore, as long as Nasdaq remains above 16100, it may retreat to 16100 and later, let's put this aside as a plan B. 17100 - 17900 will maintain the discipline of keeping its short-term targets on the radar. What I attach great importance to here and what I attach great importance to and expect in the big projection is the potential to go up as much as the rise channel here. But its if condition is not 16100, of course, what is seen here is the 14950 day closing shown by both the 55-week moving average and the trend line. Since I am looking at the big picture on a general weekly chart, we will follow two-day closings as a base scenario, not hourly and one-day closings. Therefore, whether Nasdaq stays above 16100 or not is a short-term indicator that we will follow with a very strong tone. Will Nasdaq, which continues to remain above 16100, open the door to a process of eagerly moving up the channel towards 17100 - 17900 with the non-agricultural employment data to be released this week?

Or will it decide to go below 16100 and make a correction towards 15400 - 14950, we will see its decision and result. Here I explained both sides in terms of Trading discipline. So, how will we manage the process, such as controlled upward discipline as long as it remains above 16100, risk appetite tone, increasing and decreasing position weights depending on whether 17100 is passed or not, and investors will act with some defensive impulse in technical discipline against the risk of deepening the correction towards 14950 - 15100 in a closing below 16100? should. The last thing I would advise from this chart is that even if 16100 is broken and there is a retreat towards 14900 - 15500, there is a Fibonacci 1.618 20013 target waiting for us for Nasdaq. I continue to read positively as long as it stays within this channel before the election in America. I attach great importance to whether 17100 - 17900 can be crossed or not. 17900 is in my clear target for once this year. Then we will see whether 20013 will be towards the last quarter of this year, after the election, or whether it will be a 2025 issue. But I think this chart will be enough to follow the question of whether we will meet 20013 in the last quarter of this year and / or after the American elections, with the discipline of tracing with 14950, in order to read the process and direction correctly. Correction deepens below 16100. As long as it remains above 16100, Nasdaq will remain enthusiastic towards 17100 - 17900.

Apple has a nice band trading on the weekly chart for band lovers. Now, past price movements show us this. As for the ascending channel resistance, the sale jumps as it reaches the support zone. Therefore, what we will say for Apple right now is that there is a squeeze between 208.85 and 165.5. In fact, it continues its medium-term upward trend within the ascending and narrowing triangle. Therefore, if I were to make a comment about Apple from two perspectives, $ 183 for those who look at the short term and $ 165.5 in terms of trend are supports for those who look at it from a broader investor perspective. Therefore, short-term intermediate support at 183 and 172 is Apple's trend support at 165.5, and any withdrawal that may occur unless 165.5 is broken is a buying opportunity for Apple. Unless 183 intermediate support and 165.5 main support are broken, Apple will continue to keep the $208.80 resistance in focus. Tradings vary according to the investor's understanding of risk and profit management instinct. If you ask what you would do if it went to 208.80 without breaking 183 and 172, my answer is very clear, when the price reaches 208.80, the moving averages will go up. In the tracker, it will probably go from 183 to 190 - 195.

I'm telling you very clearly, when it reaches 208.80, I look at the 8-day or 8-week moving average. If it doesn't break, I won't sell it because it will only resist as long as it stays on. I wait for it to pass resistance. If it breaks the 8 or 5 week moving averages before exceeding 208.80, I will place a take profit stop. I don't look for hills. Because when you look at the history of the chart, the rise continued as long as it remained above the 5 and 8-week moving average. But when the moving averages are broken, the story is distorted. We are currently above two moving averages. Then why should I sell when it reaches 208.80? If the moving averages are broken, I will sell. Because when it broke, there was a decline. Result 183 - 172 is intermediate support, 165.5 is Apple's medium-term trend support zone. Apple, which continues to stay above these supports, will make an important decision at 208.80. It will decide whether I will indulge in 220 and 255 or go to 208 and have a new sell into the channel as in the past. I will remain in the discipline of following this discipline as a trailing stop loss at $183 and $172.

There is a very clear rising trend at Microsoft. The Fibonacci, which I put on the 214 drop with $349, reached the 1.618 gold rate and stopped. It worked very well and perfectly. It has received pressure both when approaching the ascending channel and when it comes to a channel resistance. See if it is above or below 386.5 on the chart. If it is above, there is no off status on the channel. So there is no distortion. But as it reaches the top of the channel and Fibonacci reaches 433, which is 1.618, it can get pressure. Maybe it can put pressure on Microsoft towards $386.5. Here is the advice that technical analysis gives us, especially for Microsoft: The $386.70 and $370 support zones will be important for the discipline of not disrupting the upward trend.

Therefore, even if Microsoft retreats towards $386 and $370, it may start a new upward move towards $465, which will be the new target of the channel by dragging $433 upwards. However, attention should be paid to Microsoft's spoiling towards 465, position management with a strong tone, and an enthusiastic upward discipline, which should be managed with control until $433 is passed. Because there is a golden ratio here. Unless this point is passed, they can suppress the channel in the 433 and 386 bands as before. Therefore, any pullback that may occur in Microsoft towards 386.5 will not disrupt the potential of 433 and 465. However, I am just advising this here. Let's be a little more enthusiastic if 433 passes between 433 and 386 mathematically, or if it retreats towards 386. That's why it's a bit in limbo right now.

Salesforce Inc. (CRM) made a double top this year and after the double top, it left itself on the downside with the negative expectation on the balance sheet, this time it left the 126 dollar 315 dollar decline by making a needle in the 0.618 - 0.786 region and at the same time the 89-day moving average. Now, profit sales have been visible on the technology side in America for 1 - 1.5 months. Salesforce was already in a correction with the expectation of the balance sheet and the general market pressure. He abandoned himself along with the balance sheet. Now, once in Salesforce, $215 and $190 supports will be important in my technical vocabulary. If the pressure from 311 dollars can stay above the 215 and 190 support areas, that is, if the 215 - 190 support is broken, a disruption, that is, a new sales wave, may occur. Then we will do this. By placing a closing stop below 215 and/or 190, we will be in the discipline of seeing a careful, controlled and unsafe reaction movement towards 266.

Because it will pass these moving averages, it will move to the safe zone and a moment may occur. 215 - 190 is Salesforce's short-term support zone, while the medium term is much stronger at 170.35. I think it will face a support zone that may be difficult to break if there is no additional disturbance from the fundamental side. As long as these regions remain above 215 and 190, I expect a reaction attack in Salesforce, especially towards 266 dollars. If $266 is passed, the action will no longer be a reaction. It starts a new trend towards 311s and 362s. If the movement above 215 sees 166 and cannot pass, a bear raid may come here again. As a result, the 266 - 215 band is a region where this decline will be digested and a controlled reaction will be sought. As long as it remains above 215 and 195, a controlled upward reaction attack targeting 266 can be attempted. Whether 266 is passed or not will be a resistance that needs to be followed carefully in the sense that the reaction ends or spoils towards 311s.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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