Sirwin
Sirwin

My Thoughts on Current Markets-129


When you look at the S&P 500 weekly chart, whether you like it or not, whether you like it or not, whether you like it or not, there is Fibonacci 1.618 here, this is the golden ratio. The golden ratio exists in architecture, in our lives, in aesthetics on women's faces, in mathematics, and in the stock market. The American S&P index continues its medium-term process focused on the 5648 golden ratio level corresponding to Fibonacci 1.618. There is a target of 5648, the target of S&P 500 is now 5648. Look, if you are a trader, this movement will not go to 5648 without correction. But I also say, let's look at the markets in the medium and long term. I say focus on the target in the long term and read the pullbacks as an opportunity in themselves. As a result, S&P 5185 is intermediate support, and sags towards 5070 and 4820 are opportunity support zones. I'm not saying it won't hang in these areas, but I'm explaining the risk.

The short-term target will clearly continue to be 5475, s&p's main target will be 5648, as the sags will be followed as relative opportunity cost zones. When Fibonacci reaches 1.618, S&P will swing to 5648 as long as it stays above 4820 - 5070. He can make corrections during the process, the process does not suddenly go up with zigzags in the 5160-5600 region, it can go by tilting to the right. Therefore, there may be corrections. Fibonacci says that when it comes to 5648, we will question S&P in a big way, we will sit down, we will gather the investment committee, we will get the answer whether we should hold or lighten. When we look at the lower indicators, first the price rotates and then the lower indicator rotates. Therefore, the lower indicator returns to the price after a certain period of time. Let's use sub-indicators in position appetite management. For example, you trade long in S&P with 100 contracts, keep your number of contracts controlled until the match trigger crosses up. If we use sub-indicators for such things, we can get very serious performance from sub-indicators in terms of raising and lowering our risk appetite.

The most popular stock in America right now is Nvidia. Nvidia investors saw a great trend at the beginning of 2024. It came from flatness at $500 with strong momentum. Pay attention to the balance sheet, news flow, etc. Here is the reason and experience why I attach importance to 5648, which is Fibonacci 1.618 in the American S&P stock market. Your Fibonacci impulse reached 1.618 and stopped. The message the chart gives me is that if you are Nvidia, I am Fibonacci 1.618. If you are going to be spoiled and make money for your investors, you need to come and pass me. Fibonacci has been putting pressure on the price of 1.618 970 for 3 months. Now 970, that is, 1.618, can be crossed because resistances are not measured by the end of the trend, if the trend support lines are broken, the trend is measured by the end. It is currently facing resistance, making a small bowl or double bottom within itself. In fact, there is still a chart that tends to go up. Because it keeps the trend. You know, with plain logic, the trend is intact.

Result 880 - 791 will be a very strong support zone for Nvidia in case of possible pullbacks. However, if Nvidia, which continues to stay above 880 and 791, starts to close above 970 dollars, it may want to move the trend and indulgence phase to a higher level, towards 1080 and 1258. Then the technical projection we will get from here is; 880 is intermediate support, 791 is main support and trend support zone. I'm not saying it won't retreat towards these regions, but even if it does, with the passage of 971, 1080 is the intermediate resistance and intermediate target in Nvidia, and 1258 is the potential target. The potential target may not go to 1258 immediately. When it exceeds 970, it goes to 1080. It makes a peak upward and then drops it back a little. Then he can leave 1258 to the next wave, but he will protect his potential targets. Even if it is Nvidia and has potential, it may break down one day. If you ask where we should place a trailing stop in terms of risk understanding here, I would say 791. It enters a short-term downtrend at 791. Unless 791 and 880s are broken, if 971 is exceeded, Nvidia will maintain its short-term 1080 and medium-term 1258 potential. 1080 and 1258 target potential should be kept under control with 880 and 791 risk management.

I think Intel came under pressure again after a sale regarding its balance sheet. When you look at it, the falling trend that I drew from this 68 peak to the double peak seen at the beginning of 2024 shows itself as a potential target from above. However, it is not yet clear whether the price is at the right time for the return. There is something to pay attention to here. The region where the 24.75 - 51 exit is currently located is the region close to 78.6. In other words, it has largely corrected the outflow here, along with its possibly bad balance sheet. There is no need to be certain that it will sell towards 24.75, which has been supported 3 times, you need to be a little soft. It may drop to 24.75, but the best thing for those who want to buy it is to buy it in parts. 28.5 - 24.75 is Intel's support zone. I wouldn't say we won't retreat to these areas in terms of risk management. However, I read the withdrawals as a medium-term opportunity. In terms of risk management, you place a stop at a reasonable level below 24.75, in terms of risk management, for closing below a price such as 24. You can read the sags in the 28.5 - 24.75 region as a relative opportunity.

Now, while something is pressuring the price and it offers a long-term opportunity, in order to become a short-term trend, certain movements must pass the averages so that the carrying cost risk is eliminated. In this sense, Intel needs to exceed 34.5 for a serious upward target potential to begin. If it exceeds 34.5, the area between 34.5 and 46.60 may turn into a strong short-term reaction attack, with a relatively optimistic target of 46.60. By placing a stop below $28.5 and/or $24, I would sweetly follow this chart with a target of 46.60, accepting the cost of waiting. If it exceeds 46.60, Intel will clearly return to a permanent trend towards 59 - 68. In this sense, 46.60 can be followed as a potential short-term reaction target above. In case of a pullback to 28.5 and 24.75, 46.60 can be used as a relative opportunity for a reaction attack.

Tesla found support at Fibonacci 78.6 of the 124.5 -294 exit. That's why it's important at 78.6. If it breaks, it falls apart, and when it's surpassed, it gets excited. The 144 region is a very strong support for Tesla. So now, I think the balance sheet was a bit problematic in the past period. 144 is important in Tesla, I read this chart of Tesla positively unless 144 is broken. But if it breaks, I will run away. The result is relatively positive here, staying above 144. However, Tesla has created a terribly strong resistance line with 4 descending peaks. If Tesla breaks through the strong resistance formed by the descending peaks, Tesla will probably be the subject of some very rambling, sassy tweets from Elon Musk. However, 144 is an important short-term strong support zone. We can read that staying above this point is relatively positive. We will keep it in our pocket as a plan B and risk analysis as the risk of 124 may occur in closings below 144. As long as it stays above 144, Tesla may not be at 185 immediately and then it may zigzag in the 174 - 184 region. As long as it remains above 144, it may attempt a reaction attack under the falling trend towards 185 and then 227. When Tesla closes above 227, the falling trend consisting of falling highs is crossed and starts a trend in Tesla towards 294 - 345, probably supported by Elon Musk's tweets.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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