Sirwin
Sirwin

My Thoughts on Current Markets-113


There has been a red bar in S&P for 3 weeks. Therefore, there has been a correction movement on the S&P side for 3 weeks. First the technique, then the news, here's what it is, first the technique works, then there's inflation high, bond interest increased, there's tension between Israel and Iran, will there be a war, etc. But without any of these, the technique showed us its leading indicator again and gradually I got tired. He said he could make a correction. We are talking about a massive bull move, meaning a 21-week breakout on the weekly chart in approximately the middle of 2023. It is above the 8-week moving average for 21 weeks. After 21 weeks, the moving averages were broken and this time they fell for 13 weeks. Again, 21 weeks are up. After the twenty-second week, America started to decline again, this time. As a result, we have been in a sharp decline and correction for the last 3 weeks. Let me state this very clearly, as always. The decline that has been experienced for 3 weeks is a short-term correction in the medium-long-term upward trend. My personal opinion is that America has not seen its peak. It made its short-term peak at 5200 - 5300.

I think America will see levels above 5100 - 5200 again this year. Only here is it important where the return will come from in terms of financial literacy and risk rating. To manage the timing of returning to 5100 again, that is, if it ends in 3 weeks, it will return faster. If it ends in 5 - 8 weeks, it will be more moderate. If it takes 13 weeks, maybe even until the end of the year, it may be difficult for the hills again. When I look at it strategically, the 4815 - 3500 decline in 2022 has now only completed Fibonacci 1.272. The golden ratio awaits us. The gold rate is at 5629. When this correction is over, S&P will clearly go to 5629. We will see where he will finish his correction before going to 5629. We have 4815 reports regarding this from the technical field. The last major decline has a high of 4815. Therefore, if the S&P 500 will keep it limited with a faster, narrower band, that is, a 3-4 week correction, 4940 will be intermediate support, and 4815, I underline it in red, will be an important support. If it can hold on above these two support zones, we will see that S&P will try to go up towards 5175, not immediately, in the coming days.

Looking at its history, you may notice that many times it has made a reaction after three declines, but it did not immediately return to an uptrend. If there will be an upward reaction, we will start to watch for reaction attacks from 4940, but especially from 4815. As I just mentioned, there is a reaction after 3 weeks, but it is not very safe, sales come again. In such a reaction, S&P has started a safer long trade, an upward trade, we can carry S&P with a little more appetite, a little more pride, with high position weights. We will not measure discipline only by being kept above 4815 - 4940. We will manage it when it goes above 5175. Therefore, we will follow the correction in the 5175 and 4815 band. If it passes 5175 without breaking 4815, we will see that S&P has clearly started a new upward trend towards 5629. In this sense, what I would like to point out is that we should not say that the correction in S&P is over until 5175 passes. We can focus on a clear upward movement above 5175 with the target of 5629.

In this sense, I have a very serious label at the 4815 level, which means the correction ends or deepens. If this place is not broken, S&P will probably turn towards 5175 to make a new peak. If 4815 is broken, it has the discipline of returning to every price trend, so S&P may face an even more serious bear attack below 4815, up to 4500 - 4550. But that is also an opportunity. The decline could effectively disturb the market in the short term. But this in itself may create a new opportunity for those who missed the rally. 4815 and - or 4550. America will turn around and make a new peak from one of these two numbers. If you sold it, there may be an opportunity to replace it. It may be an opportunity to add a position for those waiting on the sidelines.

Considering the movement from 214 at the beginning of 2023, following the 349 - 214 decrease in Microsoft between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022, the golden ratio (Fibonacci 1.618) of the decrease of 349 and 214 corresponds to 433 dollars. In this way, it has already made a 100% dollar-based return. The result is Microsoft (MSFT) 386 and 379 short term, 349 medium term support zone. Technical analysis leaves us a trace, although it is not 100%, and says 386 - 379 and/or 349 if it breaks and the correction expands. In other words, it gives us 3 traces in a hole of many unknown numbers. From one of these numbers, my personal opinion is that Microsoft will continue its trend towards 433. If you go back to every price trend and pay attention, in the last uptrend starting from the beginning of 2023, every move is a Fibonacci reversal. In fact, there is no need for dead end here, but it fixes it.

Those who buy from above and at the wrong time suffer losses. Here is the last wagon, those who got on the penultimate wagons are now saying, "Wow, I bought it, it's starting to fall." Now, would you be upset if you bought this for $220? You would sit back and be in 100% dollar-based profit. If I had a position that took it up to a maximum of 250, I would place a stop on the second day below 379 or on the second day below 349 dollars. I won't give up on the trend unless it breaks there. I would agree to give back a certain portion of my profit, but I would continue to hold on to my position with the discipline that the trend has not been broken and that it maintains the potential to go above 433. Microsoft 386 - 379 is a strong short-term support zone. There is stronger support at $349 in the medium term. My personal opinion is that in the darkness of such an unknown number, we will follow the possibility of completing the Microsoft fix with one of the 3 numbers I mentioned.

Then we will see Microsoft start a reaction attack towards 433s again. However, 433 is a very important Fibonacci golden ratio level. Therefore, it may want to linger in the 433 and 379 band for a while. Buying is not enough to make money. It has to exceed 433. As Fibonacci channels grow, momentum and appetite increase. Therefore, bars grow. Therefore, there may not be a serious momentum or a serious yield curve for Microsoft until it exceeds 433. But if it exceeds 433, we can see that Microsoft is entering a spoiling phase towards 476 and 568. The movement may be a little harder.

The tag I assigned to the 384 - 89 decline in Meta, which started from the end of 2021 and lasted until the end of 2022, was a difference of 30 dollars to Fibonacci 1.618, and the black cloud of 1.618 had an effect on the price and put it under pressure. It was affected because the indices were coming down. The commodity is correcting its serious short-term rise within the medium-term strong uptrend. Therefore, this may also be a short-term downtrend. But the medium term is a correction in the big picture. If you place costs in the wrong place in a medium-term uptrend or a short-term downtrend, you will make a loss. This is the fix for the bottom cost guy. Prices rise, the foam disappears, they correct, profit sales come. Then it comes out again. Medium and long term investors always make more money than traders.

As the result approaches the 566 region, we see Meta getting pressure. 460 - 430 and 385, one of them has a trace left by the technical analysis that Meta will finish its correction since 550 - 530 and return towards 566. I will follow this trail. Our 460 and 430 intermediate supports will be the strong medium-term support of 385 Meta. Especially unless 385 is broken, the pullback will present an opportunity in itself and then the Meta will turn the trend upwards again towards 566s. Buying and selling gradually to avoid disappointment is a great discipline. However, the investor sees gradual buying as a burden, a compulsion, a difficult discipline.

In the Google 148 and 133 regions, I will follow 148 as intermediate support and 133 as short-term main support. If the 2-week horizontal or downward correction, which has occurred with the pressure from the general market since about 161, pushes 130 - 148 levels down in Alphabet, there may be a risk of continuing the pressure towards 133. To say that if 148 breaks, there may be a risk of falling to 133, it means that we should not think that it will not go there, but if it goes there, we can stay calm. If there is a risk here, that risk will occur below 133, not below 148. For example, when the 55-week moving average was broken at the beginning of 2022, the price dropped even further. Unless the current region is broken, we cannot generally say that the medium-term trend has turned downwards for Alphabet.

However, I warn you, if 148 is broken, there will be a decline towards 133. This decline may even create an opportunity in itself. This is 148 intermediate support, I will follow 136 and 133 supports. If it can continue to hold on to this support zone, a new uptrend may start after the Alphabet correction towards 170.90 and 194.75, that is, depending on the figure coming from the sector and the index. The most important feature of rising trends is that they make rising bottoms. Then I can say that 170.90 is Alphabet's target unless 133 is broken. In terms of a very major, very short analysis, 170.90 above 133 is Alphabet's short-term target and 194 is Alphabet's medium-term target. In terms of risk management, financial literacy and discipline, I leave it on behalf of the financial literacy note that Alphabet will correct the level below 133 to 125 - 117 and turn its trend off and trigger a risk.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

How do you rate this article?

26



Cryptocurrencies and Stocks Articles
Cryptocurrencies and Stocks Articles

In this section, I will have articles about the stock market and cryptocurrencies.

Send a $0.01 microtip in crypto to the author, and earn yourself as you read!

20% to author / 80% to me.
We pay the tips from our rewards pool.