September is going to be a very important month for cryptos, with many events that will set the tone for the coming months. Let’s explore them in this article.
Photo by Debby Hudson
US Economy
Let’s start with the nearest event : the inflation numbers in the US, which will be published this Wednesday, September 11th.
Source : Tradingview
They are forecasted to be at 2.6% compared to 2.9%, which is a significant drop and would be very bullish for the crypto industry. However, if the numbers come in slightly higher, for example, with inflation at 2.7%, it could cause the market to drop because the market is currently pricing in this forecast.
This is unlikely to have an impact on the Federal Reserve’s decision to decrease interest rates (except in the case of a major surprise), but it might influence the size of the rate cuts (0.25% or 0.5%).
FED Pivot
Speaking of the Federal Reserve, they will have a meeting on September 18th to reach a consensus on the interest rate.
Source : tradingeconomics
After more than a year since the last hike, we will very likely see an interest rate cut, which signals that money printing may soon return ! This would be bullish in the medium term for risk-on assets like crypto and the stock market.
However, it’s important to note that historically, September has been Bitcoin’s worst month :
Source : Coinglass
The good news is that every time we’ve had a positive September, it followed a red August, and that’s the case right now. However, as you may know, we can’t base predictions entirely on historical performance.
Special Mention
A special mention goes to the US presidential debate happening in the coming hours. I don’t expect crypto to be discussed, but it will be important to see which candidate comes out on top. The outcome is so close that this event will play a crucial role !
As always thank you for reading !
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Disclaimer : This is not a financial advice, you need to do your own research !
