I’ve been following the on-chain data very closely.
One report stands out as being particularly notable.
A comprehensive analysis from Galaxy Research published on June 12, 2026, which I think is a must-read for any Bitcoin investor this cycle. I’m sharing the key findings below.
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The 13 Indicators - And Where We Stand
Galaxy’s framework highlights five key categories of indicators – valuation, profit-taking, miner behavior, trend, and sentiment – and of the 13 signals that have historically characterized cycle lows, only four have so far appeared in the current drawdown.
Below are the triggered and not yet triggered signals:
Triggered Not Yet Triggered
Fear sentiment reading Price below on-chain cost basis
Trend gauge near lower range Holders in aggregate losses
First dip below 200-week MA Sustained loss-taking
Hash Ribbons recovery cross -
The Hash Ribbons cross in early June was the first miner-related signal this cycle, but Galaxy notes that it came earlier than usual, potentially due to miners reallocating resources to AI.
The most important bottom indicators still remain unfulfilled, with the price yet to test the cost basis, holders to experience aggregate losses, and a prolonged period of loss-taking to occur. These three factors have consistently characterized previous cycle lows.
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The Timing Question
Prior cycles saw a 12- to 13-month peak-to-trough period, and with the current drawdown already peaking in October 2025, it is only about eight months in as of June 2026. According to Galaxy, a bear-market low is not likely before late 2026.
At roughly 242 days from the peak, the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 drawdowns had already exceeded 68% from peak to trough. The current cycle at 51% is only recently overtaking the similar period in the 2013-2015 cycle.
The same conclusion can be made using the halving timing as a reference point. The last halving occurred in April 2024, and Bitcoin prices typically peak between 12 and 18 months after the event while hitting bottom between 24 and 28 months after. Using the shorter end of the range as a reference point, we can expect a low between October 2026 and January 2027 with the most probable time around Q4 2026.
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Where the Price Could Land
Scenario MVRV Range Price Range
Base case 0.75 - 0.86 $40,000 - $46,000
Harsh washout 0.56 - 0.70 $30,000 - $37,000
Shallow outcome Near 1.0 $51,000 - $54,000
The base case of the MVRV ratio of 0.75-0.86 suggests a value range of roughly $40,000 and $46,000, which would be the most probable scenario by late 2026. However, Galaxy also points out that the cost basis has the potential to fall during a significant sell-off as the value of coins transferred at a loss is incorporated into the calculation, thus lowering it.
A 10-30% drop in the cost basis during the panic selling period would suggest a much lower floor around roughly $40,000 back toward $28,000.
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The Calmest Top in History
The October 2025 peak was the calmest one in Bitcoin history, with the MVRV ratio only peaking at 2.29, compared to 2.93-5.91 across previous cycles. Only two of the 11 topping indicators were confirmed at the time, and the Pi Cycle Top signal did not trigger.
The confluence of demand destruction at the peak and the relatively high MVRV reading suggest that the cost basis – the value of all coins at the time of purchase – was higher than usual at the peak. It came within a historically close range (43.7%) of the all-time value peak, compared to 34.2%, 21.2%, and 16.9% in the three prior cycles.
This meant that the value range for the cycle low was mechanically limited, constraining the potential price range in dollar terms, even as the price-to-cost basis at the bottom matched the historical mean of 70%.
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The Divergence: Demand Cratering, Miners Holding
A rare on-chain divergence has occurred recently as Bitcoin spot demand plunged to near -170,000 BTC on July 20, 2026, with the Puell Multiple hitting its cycle-low reading, suggesting that miners are far from capitulating.
The demand reading shows a sharp reversal from a brief improvement in buying interest that occurred earlier this month, with the Puell Multiple indicating that miners are accumulating more BTC at lower prices.
The confluence of the demand destruction and Puell Multiple suggests a potential supply squeeze if the buying interest returns, or a further price decline if it does not.
Bitcoin is caught between a short squeeze on the supply side and a potential demand shortfall on the demand side.
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What This Means for You
The analysis suggests that the bottom is indeed coming but not for several months.
The current cycle is nearing the late stages of the bear market, with most indicators pointing to a likely range between $40,000 and $46,000 by late 2026. For dollar-cost averaging investors, these levels represent excellent buying opportunities, while traders should consider the potential value range in Q4 2026.
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What are your thoughts on the current state of the market? Let me know in the comments below.
