Oh, I just checked the prices because I wanted to make an experiment, to see what it should be done with AMPL to increase the value of the portfolio.
As a result, I will show you the history of this process.
So, first, I need to study the facts:
This is the price on 11 of January 2021. It is one of the lowest prices of AMPL's chart. Right near resistance.
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my inputs - how many AMPL I have now: 100
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the actual kucoin exchange price: 0.81 $ - 11 january 2021, 09:31 A.M. UTC
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the oracle (24h average) price: 0.974 $ - at 11.jan.2021, 09:31 A.M. UTC
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total AMPL circulating supply: 375.78 mil AMPL
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price history vs last 24 h: -17% (was 1.0088 $)
Now, what is the next move?
How could be the average price until next morning at 02:00 A.M. UTC:
A. bigger than actual average and target price
B. bigger than actual average, but still lower than target price
C. the same with actual average
D. lower than actual average
These are the possible options now.
Which will be the most probable?
I think it will be D. - lower than yesterday, so - the next action should decrease the number of AMPL tokens to reduce the offer for selling.
The question is - how low it will be?
And now we have unlimited responses, but the most viable are:
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only maximum 3 %
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between 3-15 %
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more than 15%
How the rebase process will act:
In the first case, I don't think something will happen
In the second, a max of 5% of circulating supply will be erased from our portfolio, so I will have 95 AMPL instead of 100
In the third case, we could expect at maybe 10-15% decrease of tokens, but divided in few days and the process will be canceled if the price is recovering.
Why is this important for trading?
Because we need to evaluate how is better for us: we should sell before rebase or not?
And we need to make some evaluations to predict the most possible scenario:
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we sell now at 0.80 $
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we try get a better price until the rebase
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we wait the rebase and a decrease of our AMPL tokens with max 5%
Now, we are in the second day of monitoring
I waited for the next day to see what is happening:
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as I expected - it was a rebase and the supply was going from 375.78 mil to 367.82 mil ( a decrease of 2.11%) - seen also in my portfolio
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the price grew until 0.88 and now is 0.82
So, the best solution on short term was to sell until 01:00 at best price possible (maybe a 0.86 $ is safe), wait for rebase and maybe a drop in price and then come back in AMPL.
The long term solution:
We should keep in mind that AMPL's target price is 1.023 $, so they will try to reach this by decreasing the supply. What happened after one week?
The oracle's price is more than the target (with market highs of 1.22 $).
Where is the supply in the present vs the last week?
It decreased from 375 mil to 337 mil, a 10.13%.
Where is the price now?
It increased from 0.80$ to 1.20 $ - a 50% increase!!!
So, the best solution on long term now is to buy below 0.85$ and wait for selling to more than 1.10$.
In this way, even if you'll lose 11% from your tokens, you will have a net profit of:
The math:
input - 100 tokens * 0.85 $ = 85 $
10,13% rebase = 100-10.13=89.87 tokens
output - 89.87 tokens *1.1 $ = 98.85 $
result=98.85-85 = 13.85 $
that means - 16% profit in one week
doesn't sound bad at all!
Please, DYOR and act after your judgement.
Cheers!
