The on-chain data indicates that we are approaching the end of the current bear market, but we are not at the bottom yet.

The main indicators show the following:

ARK Invest: Bottom Is Near But Not Confirmed

ARK Invest's Q2 2026 report indicates that while the conditions for the exhaustion of bears are converging, the bottom has not been confirmed yet

per the report, 54% of Bitcoin holders are in loss for the first time this cycle, suggesting that the weak hands have already bailed, with the selling pressure peaking soon thereafter (as it usually happens in bear markets). However, according to the report, Bitcoin has yet to test its on-chain value of $49,000 to $53,000 - which is an essential level for initiating a cycle bull market - so it is unclear if the price will retest the critical mass average from below.

What it means: Bitcoin's ongoing downtrend is expected to see its lowest point soon, but the price has yet to break below the average acquisition cost to enter a new bull market.

Three On-Chain Metrics Indicate That The Market Has Not Reached Its Bottom

Three reliable on-chain metrics indicate that the long-bear market for Bitcoin has not reached its bottom yet:

1. NUPL - Net Unrealized Profit/Loss.

Currently, the NUPL stands at 0.11 - meaning that the majority of Bitcoin holders are either in profit or loss; however, the reading has not entered the "Hope/Fear" area, which was the "Capitulation" area registered during the last two bear-market cycles (2018 and 2022).

Cycle NUPL at Bottom

November 2022 -0.24

March 2020 Negative

Currently 0.11 (positive)

2. MVRV Z-Score.

The MVRV Z-score has dropped to 0.22 - meaning that Bitcoin is relatively fairly valued, but it has not reached the severely discounted value area registered at the end of the last two bear markets.

Cycle MVRV Z-Score

November 2022 -0.286

March 2020 -0.2

Currently 0.22

3. Puell Multiple.

The Puell Multiple has declined to 0.51 - suggesting that the Bitcoin miners have capitulated and the price stands close to its cycle low; however, the reading has not yet entered the "rejection" area (<0.5).

What Does It Mean? Bitcoin is expected to have a bottom soon as several on-chain indicators suggest that the price is close to testing the bottom levels of the cycle, but none of them indicate that the price is at the bottom of the cycle.

When Will The Bottom Come?

The on-chain data supports the view that the bottom has not yet arrived. The chart below provides an approximate idea of when to expect the Bitcoin cycle bottom based on its historical halving and peak-bull-period timeline:

The last halving period was recorded in April 2024, suggesting that Bitcoin's peak bull period will be recorded between 12M – 18M (12 to 18 months later), and its trough will be recorded between 24M – 28M (24 to 28 months later). Consistently with that, Bitcoin peaked in October 2025 (i.e., ~18 months later), and the trough is expected to be recorded in October 2026 – January 2027 (most probably in late 2026).

What Do Analysts Say About Bitcoin's Bottom?

Institutional forecasts suggest that Bitcoin's bottom lies somewhere between $50,000-$60,000:

Institution Bottom Forecast

Standard Chartered $59,000 bottom already in; $100,000 year-end target

Galaxy Research Base case: $40,000–$46,000 in Q4 2026

CryptoQuant $53,600 valuation bottom

10x Research Around $50,000 (range: $46,628–$50,732)

Citi $53,000 in pessimistic scenario

NYDIG $53,700 cost line; extreme scenario at $37,900

Bitfinex $53,400 structural support; $40,000 if demand remains weak

Therefore, the majority of analysts expect Bitcoin's trough to be registered between $50,000-$60,000. However, as mentioned above, we are not yet at the bottom of the bear market.

What Does It Mean For You?

Summing everything up, the data suggests that Bitcoin's long-bear market has not yet reached its bottom, but the price is approaching close to the bottom. Therefore, we are now in the final phase of the downcycle before the new bull market takes off in late 2026.

For DCA investors: this situation is precisely when the "buying at the cheapest price" scenario becomes relevant as it would allow accumulating the most significant amount of Bitcoin at the relatively lowest price.

For Traders: The bottom will most probably be recorded in late 2026; hence, it is worth monitoring late 2026 developments closely.