Greetings! Today, I will be going over today's dump and layout the potential outcomes for Bitcoin in the future.
Today's move (Long term bearish implications)
Today's dump managed to break down below the 200-EMA support and back down to the 26k regions again. However, this move also managed to reset the RSI down to 37, which means that there is very little reason for a further dump (Unless any major bearish economic news comes out). Furthermore, the MACD, in the long term, is still looking bullish (However the bullish cross might be invalidated for now).
Even though the technical standpoint is still bullish, I would be highly cautious. Currently, we are one day away from September, which is a well-known bearish month for bitcoin (Historically). Due to this, whether if we have a bearish catalyst or not, there is still a high likelihood of a slow bleed down to 23k (If BTC ETF news stays idle).
There is also a large amount of news coming about BTC ETFs on Sept 1, Sept 2, and Sept 4. If the SEC chooses to reject this, it is very likely that the scenario I mentioned will play out and even worse (Crash to 20k). Fortunately, however, during October months, it is very possible that there will be some kind of reversal from 23k.
However, should it get approved, a large rally towards 36k is likely (Similar to the FED Rally back at march), due to 36k being the next heavy zone of resistance.
If relatively neutral news such as postponing the ETF decision dates comes out, it is still likely for a sideways range (Between 25k - 27k) to form or the slow bleed scenario I mentioned earlier.
My overall bullish stance in 2024, however, still remains the same. I believe that the halving + ETF approvals will be enough to rally Bitcoin to higher levels.