I’ve been analyzing the on-chain data pretty closely.
And the picture is becoming clearer.
Bitcoin’s cycle low is near - the data points are going in the right direction. But confirmation is still needed.
Here’s the data.
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Where We Stand Now
Bitcoin has dropped by 53% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000 and now trades around $59,800 . The price decline is significant, but overall, it’s still one of the mildest drawdowns seen in Bitcoin’s history.
Peak-to-Trough Drops By Cycle:
Cycle Peak Decline
2011–2012 $32 94%
2013–2015 $1,150 87%
2017–2018 $19,800 84%
2021–2022 $69,000 77%
2025–2026 (current) $126,000 ~53%
These data highlight an important point - that Bitcoin’s volatility is coming down.
The crypto asset’s moves are still large - but its range is contracting.
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Let’s now look at four critical metrics that will help determine if Bitcoin has passed its cycle low.
1. NUPL: Not Yet In Capitulation
NUPL stands for “Net Unrealized Profit/Loss” - it’s a metric that shows if Bitcoin holders overall are profit taking (positive NUPL) or realizing losses (negative NUPL).
Currently, NUPL stands at 0.11 - which means the network is in the “Hope/Fear” category. This is not yet the zone of capitulation (massive selling pressure).
The chart here shows that in November 2022 - the last major market bottom - NUPL turned negative at the cycle low. Interestingly enough, NUPL is positive right now. That would suggest that, at the moment, Bitcoin holders have profit on their books.
The “Capitulation” category only appears when the average holder is losing money.
So that’s another factor that will contribute to a cycle low - we’re not there yet.
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2. MVRV Z-Score: Fair Value - Not Undervaluation
Next, let’s take a look at MVRV Z-Score, another important metric for timing the market.
The MVRV Z-Score shows how much the current market value of coins exceeds or is below their realized value. With MVRV Z-Score at 0.22, it suggests that Bitcoin is trading at close to the fair value.
It is not nearly as close to the undervaluation territory (well below zero) that marked previous cycle lows.
Peak-to-Trough Drops By Cycle:
Value Date
November 2022 low -0.28
March 2020 COVID low -0.20
This suggests that the current Z-Score of 0.22 is close to fair value, but not nearly as close to the extreme cheapness of November 2022 or March 2020.
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3. Puell Multiple: Miner Capitulation Has Not Yet Happened
Puell Multiple is a metric that measures total miner revenues as a multiple of the 365-day moving average. It has fallen to 0.51
According to history, miner capitulation - the point at which Bitcoin miners start selling off their profit in order to stay afloat - begins when the Puell Multiple drops below 0.5 .
So far, so good - but the Puell Multiple has crossed the 0.5 level and is approaching the critical 0.4 level.
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4. Realized Price: Critical Level Has Not Been Tested
The aggregate realized price of Bitcoin has also crossed a critical level - at the moment, it stands at $53,000.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is trading at roughly $53,000 - an 18% premium over the realized value.
According to history, each major bear market low has been seen when the bitcoin price dropped significantly below the realized value.
So there’s another value trap that has not yet been crossed.
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Timing of The Bottom Is Key
The Bitcoin halving timeline is an important guide.
According to the chart, Bitcoin peaked in October 2025 - or roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving. Previous peaks have seen drops of 12–15 months later.
This suggests that the trough could emerge between October 2026 and January 2027 - with the most probable time being the fourth quarter of 2026.
With that said, Blockworks Research evaluated five key long-term cycle indicators - and their findings suggested that Bitcoin might well be at or near a cycle low right now. Bitcoin bulls are not alone in this view - the price retracement has followed the historical path, despite Nasdaq BTC RSI and Gold/BTC reaching extremes.
In his July 2026 memo, Benjamin Cowen officially entered “bottom-watch mode.” He wrote that the framework is in bottom-watch mode, with the low most likely a matter of months rather than weeks away.
He added that the combination of the RSI extremes for both Nasdaq BTC and Gold BTC, in combination with the price staying within the historical value range, gave credence to the view that the Bitcoin cycle was nearing its lows.
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What Everyone Seems To Agree On
While differing dramatically on the price, the major market analysts seem to agree on three major points:
-The bottom is close
-It will arrive by the end of 2026
-A new bull run is coming soon after
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What Does It All Mean For You
The data suggests we are nearing the end of the bear market - and looking at the cycle, the transition from bear market to accumulation period has begun. The risk/reward for long-term investors is becoming very attractive.
But at the moment, we have not crossed the critical price level - and until that happens, everyone should remain cautious about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin.
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What are your thoughts on the current Bitcoin market situation? Share your opinion in the comments below.
