- Continuous fud, floor collapse, lawsuit, unlock, Whale awakening, Government ban,...
- Black Swan: War, epidemic, bank bankruptcy, ....
- Long-short: There was a large liquidation amount of over 500M$ for Long orders
- On-chain: There is an amount of stablecoin mint coming out => loaded onto the exchange immediately, wall volume >2B
- PTKT: There is support in the weekly frame
-Psychological analysis: 70-90% of the community has the same negative direction: 1 is that they have already allied before and are afraid to sell off waiting for a lower bottom to hold money, 2 is that there is no more money to catch the bottom.
THERE ARE 2 COMMON TYPES OF BOTTOM
1. TOUCHING SUPPORTS QUICK RECOVERY, THE STRONGER THE REDUCTION, THE FASTER THE RECOVERY
- Due to continuous news and fud => Herd mentality, liquidating a lot of longs, there will be long candlesticks
- Liquidation of long orders within 24 hours => over 300M $
- After an adjustment of more than 60 days => there may be a bottom, retest the candle wicks to verify supply and demand.
2. BOTTOM SIDEWAY OF FREAKING => ACCUMULATE ENOUGH QUANTITY (TIME + QUANTITY) TO CHANGE IN QUALITY
- The bottom accumulates for a long time, moving sideways makes the market depressed, most investors will leave the market because there is no wave, cannot make a profit => the longer the time goes, the more they will sell.
- Signs: Sideway amplitude is small, tightening the supply and withdrawal not much to the floor, volume is at a low level similar to the previous cycle
- The longer the accumulation time, the stronger the pump will be after that, because the supply has been tightened, when the pump will have a lot of good news, the money flow will form a big wave and grow stronger.
WHEN DOES IT START? WHAT TO GET BOTTOM?
- Catch the bottom when BTC has adjusted at least 20% combined with widespread FUD news
- In the last 60 days, BTC has adjusted 20-30% from the peak (if the amplitude is high, it may sweep down to 50%, but most will retreat strongly)
- RSI below 30 frame D + Price touches weekly support in frame W + Stablecoin hits the floor => buy BTC => Lie still and wait for BTC to rebound
Of course, you should fish the bottom according to the growth cycle, for example the period 2015-2017, 2019-2021, 2023-2025 (can be longer if the future cycle expands further).
Timing strategy for the year
You should catch the bottom in the middle of the month in March 6, 9, 12 (when BTC has dropped 20-30% from the most recent 60-day peak).
