Late night Youtube brought me to a video on America supply chains by a Chinese professor. I spent the last days tinkering around it:

Incipit

The United States remains the top dog in the world, at least outside central Asia, and are still the focus point of world finance.

Crypto markets, Bitcoin and altcoins, are clearly affected by USA markets and politics. Recent history shows that Washington dominant position is less universal than usual and that some issues are undermining their ability to win the competition with China. 

This is of course my point of view from my sofa in Milan suburbs. 

America’s Structural Weaknesses

1- Industrial and Supply-Chain Fragility

why is the outlook of China vs USA so bad ? 

Not only the productive capabilities favors the Asian country, not only the technological gap is marginal if not reversed. The biggest issue is that semi-conductors and rare materials that are needed for USA military forces ... are in Chinese hands. And it's not easy to find alternative markets from which to buy or create the production needed even only for the military sector. 

Global hegemony is hard when you can confront your antagonist in some indirect scenarios (I'm talking about local wars as Vietnam, Korea, Ukraine) just for 3 weeks before being outpaced. 

2- Geopolitical overextension

Let's make a short list of hot fronts where USA is involved:

- Ukraine; Taiwan; Venezuela & Caribbean; Israel & Iran; 

Not to mention some colder fronts like Congo, Sudan, Libya were the Americans are somewhat involved. And finally their bases around the world. 

We have already seen some effects of this overextension. They stopped the operations against the Houthi for economical reasons and are trying to close the war in Ukraine.

This last point is also a shift in the political agenda. Biden wanted to exhaust Russia and Europe, even if Russia would go with China. Now Trump, seeing China stronger than ever, wants to at least decrease Russia's dependance from China. Which brins us to the next point: 

3- Political Fragmentation and Policy Uncertainty

Governance in the U.S. has become unpredictable, at all levels, both on domestic regulation an foreign affairs. This unpredictability is making Allies questioning Washington while on the internal side makes political view shortsighted, disincentivize investments.

Long-term strategies (China, climate, infrastructure, re-industrialization) become harder to sustain.

This is not only a byproduct of contingent situation but also consequence of the iper-polarization of partisan division with block of voters unwilling to change their vote no matter what. 

4- Rising National Debt & Fiscal Constraints

Dependency on foreign suppliers, increasing military expenses, necessity to reach goals before the next mandate... everything was solved by more debts. 

But now debt is so high that is blocking those same activities - dazing around won't solve the issue-. The dollars has become weaker than the Euro. Over time, this erodes purchasing power and encourages capital to seek assets that are insulated from policy discretion.

5- Overuse of financial power

Sanctions, asset freezes, and dollar-based controls remain effective, but repeated use incentivizes alternatives. The result is not de-dollarization in the dramatic sense, but an extra push towards different ways to exchange goods, from traditional foreign values to other alternative markets. 

6- The drug crisis among young Americans

is not just a public health tragedy; it is a long-term economic vulnerability. It reduces labor participation, weakens productivity, and erodes human capital at a time when the U.S. already struggles with real economic expansion.

It' s an internal front that create tensions with neighbor countries and demands attention, diverting resources to the external fronts. 

The Macroeconomic Environment Created

Together, these factors produce a distinct traits:

Uncertainty becomes structural rather than episodic. Real interest rates are pressured downward by fiscal necessity. Financial assets inflate faster than productivity can justify. Trust in institutions erodes slowly, internal divisions deepens. 

Not a collapse, just a spiral of slow decline. In this environment capital will look for durability over growth..

Bitcoin should benefits directly from this regime. It does not rely on political stability, regulatory clarity, or economic growth. Its fixed supply, lack of an issuer,  make it attractive when trust in policy and institutions weakens. Bitcoin increasingly trades less like a technology bet and more like alternative gold. 

Altcoins, by contrast, are structurally disadvantaged. They depend on liquidity, optimism, regulatory tolerance, and belief in continuous innovation. In an environment shaped by social erosion, fiscal stress, and political unpredictability, capital is drained. Most would probably struggle.  

The growing divergence between Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market is therefore not ideological. It is macroeconomic. Bitcoin absorbs distrust. Altcoins require confidence.

Specific internal regulation can still flip the table and both BTC and altcoins could find the equilibrium well below past levels in the upcoming months. 

[I'm more confident in my belief on USA weaknesses than on the effects of those on the crypto market].

Please comment a lot, especially if you live there ! 

Thank you, ciaoooo

Lazy