Hello Hello,
war in Iran seems destined to last at least some months with Iran vowing to fight and USA and Israel escalating their attacks.
BTC is in a bearish phase but it already was before the war, so my question is ... if not wars, what moves BTC price ?
Year‑by‑Year Breakdown (2020–2026)
2020
In March, COVID triggers worldwide liquidations; investors rushed into cash. BTC collapses more than 50% from $8,000 to $3,800. In les than two month BTC rebounded and reached the 10K $, thanks to massive monetary and fiscal intervention. 2021 BTC grew in a high liquidity, low rate environment. Lot of interest for crypto, everybody was locked in their house. FED starts aggressively raise interest rates, Bitcoin passed from from 60K $ to 46K $ between November and December. 2022 In January the decrease continued hitting the 35K $ Then War in Ukraine, At first BTC price dropped from about $39k to $34k but then BTC bounced back to 44K $. War caused price of oil and gas to spike, together with FED policy, BTC price kept decreasing to 16K $ 2023 In spring the US banking system crisis helped BTC recovery.... the "digital gold" narrative. BTC price reached 30K $ and danced between 25 and 30K until fall. October, war in Gaza. The conflict's shock lasted just days. The ETF expectation pushed price. BTC stabilized in December above the 40K $ threshold. 2024 in January SEC approves 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs. BTC rapidly reaches the 66K $ price. in April the Bitcoin halving in block rewards stops the growth but expectation of future cuts on rates helps avoid a decline. in November the Trump election and the Blackrock IBIT ETF caused a big appetite for BTC pushing price above 100K $. 2025 Trump tariffs scared investors while AI sector instability caused by regulatory disputes create a big dip for BTC, fallen to the 75K$ kevel. After a couple months, fear disappeared and BTC returned to previous levels in June the first USA strike on Iran create a little dip, rapidly recovered and kept growing.
2026
In March the issue with the Hormutz canal caused oil price to grow, driving global inflation. USA macroeconomic had a bad outlook. BTC dropped sensibly in value, reaching 60K $.
CONCLUSION
Wars create small temporary shocks.
The influence a conflict has on oil price and thus inflation dictates how long BTC price will be affected. If the influence is nihil, the shock is resolved in days.
thank you for the attention, if any, and be safe.
Happy Woman Day
Lazy
