woke up to this data point and im like wait what
google searches for "crypto" just hit a ONE YEAR LOW. lowest since late 2023. and im sitting here staring at my screen thinking... bitcoin is still over $87k? how does that even make sense
price is fine. not amazing but fine. but apparently nobody cares anymore?
thats the weird part and the more i dug into it the stranger it got
the numbers are actually wild
went down a rabbit hole this morning pulling data from different sources. social sentiment completely flipped bearish. retail investors are just done. apathetic. leaving.
fear and greed index stuck in "extreme fear" for 14 days straight
not regular fear. EXTREME fear.
someone on twitter said "none of my normie friends ask me about crypto anymore" and honestly that hit different? like i remember 2021 parties everyone suddenly wanted to talk bitcoin when it hit $60k. my aunt asking about dogecoin. barber telling me about nfts.
now? silence. nobody brings it up.
but bitcoins at $87k! not a bad price! so why does it feel like crypto died
what actually happened
spent too much time going through coindesk cointelegraph the block trying to piece together when this shift happened
everything traces back to october 10th
the flash crash
heres what went down: trump announced new tariffs which triggered panic selling in a market with low liquidity already. set off the BIGGEST liquidation event crypto has probably ever seen. were talking $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated.
thats not people choosing to sell. thats people getting FORCED OUT because they borrowed money to trade and couldnt cover losses.
bitcoin dropped over 14% in like 48 hours (oct 10-11)
but altcoins? absolutely destroyed
- non-bitcoin non-ethereum stuff dropped about 33% across the board
- many lost 80% or more
- some lost close to 99.9% in that same window
im talking coins people had real money in. doge briefly dropped 50%. smaller altcoins basically went to zero in MINUTES.
thats the kind of thing that makes people quit
the memecoin disaster nobody wants to talk about
okay so this part probably killed retail enthusiasm more than anything: trump and melania memecoin crashes
remember when those launched? massive FOMO wave. people thinking "if the trumps are doing it its gotta be legit right"
yeah no
both tokens crashed over 90% from peaks. combined market cap losses over $1 billion
thats not just money disappearing thats trust evaporating
when you lose money on some random shitcoin you found on twitter thats one thing. you knew it was risky. but when you lose money on something promoted by people supposed to be running the country?
different
makes you feel stupid. betrayed. and most importantly makes you stop caring about crypto entirely
the data backs this up
pulled vanecks recent bitcoin report because i wanted to see if "diamond hands" narrative still real
medium-term holders (1-5 years) are selling:
- 1-2 year holders down 900 basis points month-over-month
- 2-3 year group down 1,250 basis points
- 3-5 year holders dropped 550 basis points
long-term holders (5+ years)? not moving at all
translation: people who bought 2021-2023 are tapping out. exhausted. either down money or barely breaking even and done waiting for "next big run"
but OGs holding since 2017-2020? completely unfazed
so this isnt "bitcoin is dying" moment
its "retail is exhausted and gave up" moment
predictions all over the place
naturally wanted to know what experts think happens next
range of predictions is WILD
some saying bitcoin hits $250k by end 2026. coincodex algorithm predicts $308k by 2030 (though they also call current forecast bearish which is... confusing)
other analysts saying were entering DECADE-LONG bear market
through 2035
ten years
thats not a dip thats an entire era of crypto winter
honestly? dont know whos right. bullish case makes sense if institutions keep buying and governments keep printing money. bearish case makes sense if retail never comes back and we hit peak adoption already
wait...
my actual take after all this
crypto isnt dead
retail interest is dead
thats what i keep coming back to. bitcoin trading at price that seemed impossible five years ago. institutions still buying—corporations added 42k btc in one month (largest accumulation since july 2025) even while etfs saw outflows
but average person who got wrecked on memecoins or lost money in october? done with crypto
and i get it honestly
investors pulled $3.6 billion out of spot bitcoin etfs in november alone. largest monthly outflow since launch. combine that with trump/melania memecoin disasters and market in "extreme fear" two straight weeks...
yeah of course google searches at one year low
people dont search for things theyve given up on
stuff im still thinking about
tbh dont have answers and genuinely trying to figure out what i think:
will retail ever come back or is crypto just institutional-only now
is fear and greed index even useful? been screaming extreme fear 14 days but bitcoin hasnt collapsed so... is fear good buying signal or just accurate
what happens if we hit actual recession? does btc act like digital gold or tech stock
heres what i cant stop thinking about
if retail never comes back what happens to cryptos whole narrative
pitch was always "banking for everyone" and "financial freedom for masses"
but if masses checked out. if crypto just becomes something only institutions and whales trade
did we basically just recreate traditional finance with extra steps
idk the answer
just saying worth thinking about
fact that bitcoins still above $87k while nobodys googling "crypto" tells me something fundamental shifted
whether thats good or bad depends who you ask
still figuring out what i think
are you still actively following crypto or checked out too? because based on data most people have and im genuinely curious if thats reversible or if we just watched end of cryptos retail era happen in real time
thoughts?
