The Repetitive Cycle of Bitcoin: Predicting the FUTURE - Bitcoin & then Cryptocurrecies #2

The Repetitive Cycle of Bitcoin: Predicting the FUTURE - Bitcoin & then Cryptocurrecies #2


Bitcoin has a PATTERN and the odds are the cycle will repeat itself.  Today we are going to do a bit of SIMPLE technical analysis to prove it and the results are at least STRIKING!!!

If you´ve come all the way here you should know what technical analysis is but just in case let me refresh the definition

What Is Technical Analysis?

Technical analysis is a trading discipline used to evaluate and identify trading opportunities focusing on the study of price movement and volume. 

Technical analysis tools are used to scrutinize the ways supply and demand will affect changes in price, volume and implied volatility.   

Technical analysts believe past trading activity and price changes can be valuable indicators of future price movements.  

Technical analysts believe that history tends to repeat itself. 

Technical analysis tools are based on charts AND graphs price/volume time periods.  

PATTERNS & BITCOIN PATTERN

There are many assets such as gold or oil that, from time to time, repeat the same behavior from previous stages. In the same way Bitcoin's price also responds to a periodic pattern over time. 

The information you will find below is based on Bob Loukas studies, which you can see on YouTube 1st VIDEO  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivWdOztDkv4

Bob Loukas is a 25+ years experience in market analysis and trading.  He is the founder of The Financial Tap.  Mr. Loukas reputation on the study of economics is his best presentation card as he is a leading expert in MARKET CYCLES.  His interest in market cycles comes from studying the work of Walter Bressert, a CYCLE FINDER EXPERT in this field.  Prior to launching The Financial Tap, Bob Loukas served as a senior executive at various Fortune 50 firms where he led development of financial trading and reporting software.  To know more you can visit https://thefinancialtap.com/about-me/

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GRAPH #1 shows BITCOIN´S first 4 year cycle going from 2011 to 2014 -   

In the graph we can see the time period of Bitcoin price and trading volume from 2011 to 2014.  The price of Bitcoin between February and April 2011 reached $1 and the price trend until early 2014 went UP.  From early 2014 and for the next 59 weeks the price trend went DOWN just a bit over a full year.  During this period of time between 2011 and early 2015, 70% of the time Bitcoin price went UP while 30% of the time the price went DOWN.  Here we have a 142 weeks going up vs. 59 weeks going down period. 

As the graph shows, the periods of rise and fall occur one after the other: first the bullish period for about 3 years and then the bearish period the remaining year.  It is true that within the bullish period there are drops and in the bearish there are climbs, but that's normal. The important thing is to know in which period (BULL vs BEAR) WE ARE AT.  

KEY # 1 IDENTIFY THE TIME PERIOD (BULL vs BEAR) IN WHICH BITCOIN IS WITHIN ITS 4 YEAR CYCLE AS IT REPEATS ITSELF
This will allow you to know with certainty if it is good time to invest or if it is preferable to wait. 

You may think the 4-year period that I just showed you has been symbolic, it will not be repeated and/or it does not represent bitcoin´s movement but let me tell you something, THE CYCLE DOES REPEATS ITSELF.  Let´s see a longer period of time in the next graphic adding 4 more years to our graph.    

 

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GRAPH #2 shows BITCOIN´S second 4-year cycle going from 2015 to 2018 

Here we go on from 2015 to late 2018 and GUESS WHAT? THE CYCLE REPEATED ITSELF.  We had a BULLISH 152 week vs. a BEARISH 50 week.  In other words we had a 3 year going up trend or 75% and nearly a year going down trend or 25%.  Once again the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin repeated. 

KEY # 2 LEARN FROM PAST MISTAKES TO "MATCH" THE FUTURE

If you didn't buy, BUY.  If you bought late, GET on TIME this TIME.  If you sold at THE WRONG TIME, DON´T SELL THIS TIME

 

Whether or not you know how to analyze graphs, if you look closely, you will see that there are certain similarities between the first cycle and the second cycle, in the same way as the there will be from the second cycle to the third cycle because
 


THIS CYCLE IS REPEATING RIGHT NOW


Nobody knows the exact maximum price to which Bitcoin will rise in the next cycle.

No one knows how Bitcoin will be affected from popular acceptance or government regulations or even any media news at all. 

The only thing we know for sure is what we have seen before in the graphs and the PATTERN Bitcoin has followed so far. 

Following the past, we can foresee, future behavior.


By what we already know we can determine that from last year 2019 and till year 2022 Bitcoin will move in the following way:

We already know that in 2019 the price of Bitcoin regain some of the ground lost during the last period of the 4 year cycle, 2018.  So here we have our 1st year BULL trend. About 54 weeks.

Throughout the second year, 2020 (PRESENT TIME), the trend is that it will continue in an upward trend and it should manage to exceed its previous historical maximum. 52 weeks.

In the third year 2021, the price should skyrocket until a much higher figure than the views so far BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT BY THE 4TH QUARTER OF 2021 THE TREND WILL CHANGE FROM BULL TO BEAR.  So that should give us a BULL TREND of about 36 weeks.  This BEAR trend will go on until about the end of the third quarter of 2022, expected to be a total of 48 to 54 weeks BEAR TREND.

***As far as we know 2019 was the first year of the cycle on which we are right now and the trend was UP.  Right now even with COVID 19 and with last  Bitcoin´s HALVING is moving following the trends of the previous two cycles.***  

Then we will have TOTAL BULL WEEKS OF 54 + 52 + 36 =142 WEEKS vs About 48 to 54 weeks BEAR TREND this is about 72% to 75% UP TREND CYCLE vs. A 25% TO 28% BEAR TREND CYCLE.  Once again very close to the 70/30 previous cycles.  


So What is certain is the following key:

KEY # 3 BITCOIN IS A RESERVE VALUE AND IT TENDS TO INCREASE ITS VALUE OVER TIME; as it has done year after year since its inception.

The moves that Bob Loukas estimates that Bitcoin can make during the next cycle are based on past moves.

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GRAPH #3 ANTICIPATION of BITCOIN THIRD 4 YEAR CYCLE 2019-2022

Take into account that graph #3 was done on early 2019 and the trend, even with COVID19 around, matches the Bitcoin trend for year 2019 and up to today.

Obviously we cannot "predict" exactly the number of total weeks of BULL or BEAR or even to determine the exact day that the cycle will go from BULL to BEAR but WHAT WE CAN DO is to get ahead of the market and WELL IN ADVANCE FORECAST the TREND for Bitcoin. 

KEY #4 ANTICIPATE THE MARKET IS A WIN WIN STRATEGY 

 

HISTORY IS DOOMED TO REPEAT ITSELF SO FROM ALL THIS BORING ARTICLE JUST REMEMBER

 

KEY # 1 IDENTIFY THE TIME PERIOD (BULL vs BEAR) IN WHICH BITCOIN IS WITHIN ITS 4 YEAR CYCLE AS IT REPEATS ITSELF

KEY # 2 LEARN FROM PAST MISTAKES TO "MATCH" THE FUTURE

KEY # 3 BITCOIN IS A RESERVE VALUE AND IT TENDS TO INCREASE ITS VALUE OVER TIME

KEY #4 ANTICIPATE THE MARKET

 

Learn more @

1st Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivWdOztDkv4

2nd Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZvOhJYW_Hw

3rd Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggwAFOx9Hmo

https://thefinancialtap.com/about-me/

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Remember!!! Money and profits come too from a well educated financial background to make your future investments a lot easier and safer.

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