The crypto market is going through a phase of weakness, particularly over the past 24 hours, which has resulted in broad-based declines. This trend stands in stark contrast to July, which was an exceptionally strong month.
Bear Market Ahead?
As highlighted in this morning’s analysis, July ended with some of the best monthly performances of the year for many cryptocurrencies, although the final days began to show negative signals.
To find a stronger performance for Ethereum, we have to go back to July 2022, when it closed the month with a +56.58% gain.
On Ethereum’s monthly chart, we have a historical overview from its all-time high of $4,868 in November 2021. This shows the various phases of corrective and bullish swings, with the low of $880 in June 2022 followed by a rebound phase that peaked in March 2024, a summer correction, and an acceleration in November 2024, reaching a high of $4,095.
In 2025, a new corrective phase began, pushing ETH down to its April low of $1,385, followed by another bullish swing that drove prices to the July high of $3,940.
Ethereum’s 2025 Price Action
Shifting to the weekly chart, we can observe Ethereum’s price action throughout 2025. The downtrend that began from the $4,108 high was sharp and more intense than the broader crypto market’s decline.
Likewise, the rally from April’s low — after initially stalling at the $2,720 resistance area — accelerated more strongly than many other altcoins.
$ETH came close to the $4,000 level before starting to pull back, with the current weekly candle showing a -6% drop. Considering what happened during the retracement from December’s high, there is a risk that, after such a direct upward move, the downside could also accelerate.
Ethereum Support Levels
We are now looking at three main vector support zones. The first lies at $3,249, followed by a range between $3,050 and $2,960, with the primary support level at $2,650. These last two areas align with the Fibonacci retracements of the vector spanning from April’s low to July’s recent high.
Short-Term Outlook for Ethereum
Speaking of Ethereum’s short-term situation and analyzing the scenario in detail, the first key support level to hold lies at $3,410. A drop below this level could trigger a downward phase, activating the next support zones.
On the daily chart, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA50) is currently positioned right in the support area around $3,000. A pullback to this level would still be consistent with an internal swing within the bullish leg that began in April. A break below it, however, would seriously compromise the current uptrend.
From an indicator standpoint, the fast RSI has not yet entered oversold territory, nor has the price breached the lower Bollinger Band. However, the bands are tightening — largely due to the sharp rally recorded in the previous months.
