Bitcoin is heading to close October in the red, missing the seasonal rally for the second consecutive year. The context remains delicate on Wall Street, where tensions on tech stocks are weighing on the Nasdaq. Alphabet closed Thursday down 12.29%, the worst trading session in its history. Complicating the picture is the hack suffered by Binance, with unauthorized withdrawals of approximately 6.3 billion dollars.
Uptober, Bitcoin’s tendency to close October with gains, failed to materialize this year as well, and the monthly returns table marks -7.47%. From 2011 to 2025, October closed in positive territory 10 out of 15 times, with the best results occurring in the years following a halving. This is shown by the +53.8% in 2013 and +40% in 2021, while 2025—the year after the 2024 halving—stopped at -3.93%. Meanwhile, 2026 mirrors the bearish years of the cycle, when October fluctuated between the -12.7% of 2014 and the +5.55% of 2022. More than a statistical rule, Uptober works when the Bitcoin cycle is bullish.
Bitcoin towards a red October amid the Binance hack and Nasdaq tensions
The traditional markets picture remains complicated by the interest rates situation and the AI development, which is also weighing on Big Tech. Cryptos, on the other hand, suffered the shock of the Binance hack, which is leading to losses but, overall, without excessive crashes. BTC ($77,477 ▲ +1.05%) is heading to close October in negative territory, as seen from the monthly chart, interrupting three consecutive months of gains. That positive streak had led the third quarter to record a +42.78% surge.
Bitcoin held back by resistance at 84,000 USDT
The monthly chart offers a view of the last 4 years of Bitcoin, showing the low point recorded in October 2022 at 15,479 USDT. From that level, the bullish phase kicked off with a 2-year leg up and a series of new all-time highs (ATH). The latest ATH arrived in October 2025 at 126,272 USDT, followed by a downward trend that continued into 2026. The first significant low of the year formed in February at 60,000 USDT, followed by a bounce attempt and a new decline. The annual low was reached in early July at 57,735 USDT, triggering the summer rally.
Between August and September, the bounce brought Bitcoin to the vector resistance of 84,000 USDT. This level corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the ATH to the July lows. The resistance is doing its job, and in fact, Bitcoin is currently in a retracement phase. The trend remains tilted to the downside, and for an uptrend recovery, the main resistance remains at 92,000 USDT.
Bitcoin on its fourth red week towards support
The ongoing downward phase is clearer on the weekly chart, showing Bitcoin’s performance since the beginning of 2026. The downward swing movements up to the July low and the relative bounce are clearly visible. Focusing on the recent weeks, the current one is the fourth consecutive week in the red. In September, BTC had managed to close a candle above the 84,000 USDT resistance before starting the contraction.
Currently, Bitcoin is approaching the first relevant support level of the vector spanning from the July low to the September high. This level lies around 76,000 USDT, where it also intersects the 50 SMA, which should strengthen the area.
Further down, we find the main support at 72,200 USDT. A breakdown below this level would reopen the door to a bearish acceleration, with a possible drop toward 60,000 USDT.
Focusing on the short term, to signal a turnaround in the coming days, Bitcoin will need to close back above the 79,000 USDT area.
