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When BTC Breaks $62K, Look Out $75K (Apr 5 Forecast)

By Biz Wisdom | Crypto Daily FX | 3 Apr 2021


Bitcoin rallied a bit on Friday, grazing the $60K level earlier in the day before pulling back a bit, closing the daily candle just south of $59K again. This is bullish as Bitcoin continues to test resistance at the $60K level and is no longer rejected, but rather pounding on the door before moving higher in the very near-term.

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(April 2, 2021  8:30PM EST)

Short-Term:

With a higher low at $50K in tow, Bitcoin is flirting with local resistance around $60K as it has for the past 4 days. It is not unusual for Bitcoin to make impulsive moves higher or lower over the thinly-traded weekend sessions when institutional money is asleep, so I wouldn't be shocked to wake up tomorrow and see $63K Bitcoin. That being said, it won't really matter until Monday morning in Asia (Sunday PM in EST) when TradFi markets reopen and investors react.

That being said, we should expect a rally of similar magnitude up of the previous rallies, which would conservatively take Bitcoin up to the $70K level or even $75K in the near-term. With a >$1T market cap so it doesn't move as extremely or have as volatile moves as we are accustomed to historically, as was mentioned by Morgan Stanley this past week amidst their official crypto foray. However, we should continue to see moves in $10K intervals, taking us up to at least $70K in the near-term, although I don't think there's any significant psychological resistance until $100K.

If Bitcoin were to get rejected around the $60K level and fall back lower, I would only be concerned with Bitcoin breached the 200 Day EMA now trading around the $52.5K level. 

 

 

Fundamentals:

As you can see below, exchanges continue to see Bitcoin reserves dwindle as buyers ramp up long positions and withdraw balances to individual or cold wallets. With only 2.3 million Bitcoin left on exchanges - the lowest since July 2018, there is a bullish price timebomb waiting to explode higher.

Image

 

 

Stock-to-Flow Ratio (updated 4/2/21)

As you can see in Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow ratio below, we are well on pace to crest $100K in 2021. If you look closely, you can see that the gentler slope in 2020-early 2021 becomes steeper later on in 2021, indicating a more rapid and intense price rally is yet to come before an ultimate market cycle top, which we don't appear to be anywhere near.

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Bitcoin Active Addresses (4/2/21)

Bitcoin active addresses continues to climb as we rapidly approach the 2017-2018 peak levels, however the current parabola has not yet gone 'parabolic' as we are very much in a steady ascension as opposed to a parabolic leap.

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Bitcoin: Number of Addresses

This is what adoption looks like. Something to consider is how close the current Bitcoin price is to the number of addresses line on this chart comparison. This has not been the case in a bull run since late 2010/early 2011. In fact, as you can see below, bull markets typically peak when the Bitcoin price strongly diverts away from the Number of Addresses line. Meaning? We've yet to see the 'true' rally of this bull market. 

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Support: 

$50K.

Floor: 50 Day EMA around $48K. 

Resistance: 

$60K - $62K, then, $70K, then the 2.0 fibonacci extension level just under $75K.

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Biz Wisdom
Biz Wisdom

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