Sirwin
Sirwin

Weekend Rally to $75K? (3/15/21 Bitcoin Forecast)

By Biz Wisdom | Crypto Daily FX | 13 Mar 2021


Bitcoin pulled back a bit on Friday, initially slipping before finding support and bouncing back up toward the open before ultimately closing slightly down around the $57K level. This is another hammer candle, although a bearish one, so Bitcoin may be a bit exhausted in the short-term or simply flat heading into the always-eventful weekend trading sessions.

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(March 12, 2021  7:30PM EST)

Short-Term:

Bitcoin made another attempt at the ATH today, barely scraping underneath it in a second failed attempt despite closing just $1K below. Despite the slightly bearish candle, Bitcoin's daily chart is still extremely bullish and if you consider the previous January rally which looks very similar to this current one, Bitcoin tested the highs and then brokeout, rallying over $15K. If that's an indication of what we might expect again here, Bitcoin may make a push for $60K over the weekend. I anticipate there will be a bit of resistance as it's simply a large, round psychological number, and Bitcoin experienced a ~7% selloff early in the day before the buyers stepped in.

A break above $60K will, of course, open up Bitcoin to further price discovery up to the $65K and then $70K levels. If Bitcoin follows the same proportion of the January rally, then we could see a rally to $75K or even higher in the near-term. Given Bitcoin's mega-cap size and substantial price, it should now move in $5,000 - $10K increments and consolidate accordingly in $10K or so ranges. Short-term dips are to be bought as BTC is still under the ATH but moving quickly in what looks like a classic breakout pattern developing. 

In the event Bitcoin gets rejected at resistance around $58K and forms a double-top, Bitcoin could drop back down to $50K or even ~$45K which has been quite supportive and is further supported by the rising 50 Day EMA just below around $42.5K.  

 

Long(er)-Term: 

With a new local bottom in, Bitcoin has begun a new impulsive wave higher. A conservative measured move of 1.612% of the micro W1 that just terminated around $58K measures up to the 2.272% Fibonacci extension level around $99K. A more aggressive move measuring 2.612% of the recent W1 would send Bitcoin up closer to $125K. But first, as you can see below, Bitcoin is replicating the December 2020-Jan 2021 rally and pullback, which resulted in a $10K+ breakout rally. If the bullish trend continues, which we strongly expect it to, then we could see Bitcoin breakout and rally to $70K in the next few weeks. Seasonality is lining up this time again and may be pointing to another spring rally like in 2017 and another late-year blowoff top in which BTC exceeds $100K or possibly even $200K. 

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Bitcoin will likely not only hit our projected price targets but exceed them due to higher than anticipated inflation and government Quantitative Easing on a huge scale, especially starting H2 2021. I think $100K is not only on the table but a high likelihood in late 2021. Even the Stock to Flow Model for Bitcoin is well on track, pointing to a $100K - $200K Bitcoin, and the S2FX model points to a nearly $300K BTC end of this cycle. 

Support: 

1st support: Previous local resistance around $52K.

2nd support: $50K.

Floor: 50 Day EMA around $42.5K. 

Resistance: 

$60K, then $70K.

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Biz Wisdom
Biz Wisdom

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