Sirwin
Sirwin

The Dam Broke. Is $100K BTC Too Conservative? (Apr 14 Forecast)

By Biz Wisdom | Crypto Daily FX | 14 Apr 2021


Bitcoin broke out on Tuesday, impulsively breaking above the stubborn $60K resistance level and rallying up to a new ATH around $64K, closing the daily candle just north of $63K. This is extremely bullish and precisely what we have been expecting lately, even calling for it last night. Now that we're back in uncharted territory, Bitcoin should have an open lane to $70K or possibly even $80 before finding any meaningful resistance. 

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(April 13, 2021  8:30PM EST)

Short-Term:

The supply squeeze has only just started to be squoze. Bitcoin now enters another period of price discovery and new $10K trading range, though I strongly suspect this Bitcoin rally will far exceed a mere $10K given the length of this most recent Jan-April consolidation period. Typically, the longer the consolidation period, the longer and more intense the subsequent rally. $70K is our near-term price target followed by $75K, $80K, $90K, and ultimately $100K, which will be the ultimate test we have all been dreaming of for years now. One thing to keep in perspective: Bitcoin is now closer to $100K than $0. 

 

Bitcoin's RSI jumped up to 69 with the breakout, reflecting market strength and upside momentum. 

 

 Given Bitcoin's mid-five-figure price now, multiple-thousand dollar intraday price swings are the norm. By that measure, $65K or even $70K might be too conservative to be considered a "rally." $100K is absolutely on the table for Q3, maybe even Q2. As a matter of fact, Pantera Capital's Dan Morehead has predicted a $115K Bitcoin price for August 2021 (see below).

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Fundamentals:

Bitcoin supply all-time low, Bitcoin price all-time high. Nothing to see here. As more people and institutions continue to buy and HODL Bitcoin, what is likely to happen to Bitcoin's price? Is it possible the market hasn't even priced in the current supply crisis looming? Assuming current institutions continue to accumulate and new ones come online, as well as continued retail demand, $100K doesn't seem too far off for H2 2021. 

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Given Bitcoin's breakout, this song hits a little different today

 

Support: Immediate tentative support at $55K, 50 Day EMA at$50K.

 

Resistance: $65K, $70K, then $10K intervals up to $100K.

 

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Biz Wisdom
Biz Wisdom

Big questions. Anonymous answers.


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