Bitcoin rallied again on Thursday, reaching up to the $40K level before getting rejected, closing the daily candle around $39K. This is a somewhat bullish candle as Bitcoin has recovered nearly all of the gains it made last week before Monday's selloff, however, all eyes will be on $40K to see if Bitcoin breaks higher or puts in a double-top. 
(January 14, 2020 7:30PM EST)
Bitcoin rallied again on Thursday sending Bitcoin back up to test the $40K level before getting rejected, sending Bitcoin back down to around $39K to end the trading session. I think $40K will be quite resistive as it's a large, round psychological number and a doubling of the previous ATH. My primary view is this recovery rally is a dead cat bounce and, once it tests (and possibly retests) the $40K level, it gets rejected, forming a short-term double-top and another selloff with Bitcoin grinding lower to $25K - $30K to find support and print a higher low before resuming higher. I'm skeptical that Bitcoin successfully started and completed a 30%+ correction in a single day before resuming higher to new ATHs. However, this is crypto so anything's possible.
During bull markets, Bitcoin tends to make ~30% dips, which Bitcoin would have had for a moment but recovered to only print half of that. Now, with selloffs on the monthly, weekly, or even daily charts, selloffs are rarely one-day-only, in other markets as well. Yes, they are faster, especially in bull markets, but that doesn't mean we can't grind lower or sideways for another month. After seeing this week's recovery, Bitcoin might be making an exasperated second attempt at $40K, resulting in a double-top leading to another selloff and a grind lower to complete the correction.
If Bitcoin has indeed completed a 30% correction and buying is so strong to have caused V-shaped bounce and recovery, then Bitcoin will need to test and break above the $40K level and break out to $45K and $50K, where I think there will be even more resistance. It's somewhere around ~$52K that Bitcoin's market cap will equal $1 trillion, so at that point I think we could also see a selloff. However, any rally thereafter should be further supported as a $1T market cap would give the green light for many more conservative institutional investors to initiate Bitcoin positions as Bitcoin will finally be "big enough" for them to even add an allocation.
Going forward my mantra is to buy on dips, dollar-cost average on a regular basis, and even earn Bitcoin if you can. The path of least resistance is up; don't try to fight it unless you're a degenerate gambler willing to get burned.
Support: Look for support around $30K (38.2% fib) and then $25K (50% fib). Anything lower than that is a screaming buy, though I'm not even sure we'll see $25K again. For more precise price targets, set staggered buy orders at Fibonacci retracements levels and monitor price action to see what gets filled, and if Bitcoin starts to form a convincing-looking reversal, adjust accordingly (up or down).
Resistance: Look for resistance at $40K. If Bitcoin breaks above $40K, look for $45K, and then $50K. After that, we'll probably move in $10K increments.
