Is Bitcoin Medium-Term Bottom In? (July 22 Forecast)

Is Bitcoin Medium-Term Bottom In? (July 22 Forecast)

By Crypto Daily FX | Crypto Daily FX | 22 Jul 2021


Bitcoin rallied on Wednesday, recovering back above the $30K level and nearly reaching $33K before pulling back a bit, closing the daily around $32K. This is bullish short-term as it validated support at $30K, erased the previous 2 days' losses, and gives us a short-term higher high. A drop below $30K is definitely still possible, but it's encouraging to see Bitcoin successfully retest support at $30K.

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(July 15, 2021  8:30PM EST)

Short-Term

While yesterday it seemed like Bitcoin was on the verge of breaking down to a new lower low, Bitcoin rallied today on the back of the much-anticipated Elon Musk/Jack Dorsey/Cathy Woods Bitcoin conference. The conference's hype surrounding Elon Musk's generally bullish comments and positions regarding Bitcoin boded well for Bitcoin's price, which rallied as much as 9% on the day. We're far from out of the woods, but $30K seems like strong support and a good medium-long term level to add to positions. 

 

 

 

 

If BTC breaks below $30K with an impulsive candle, then we'll probably see a swift drop to the low $20Ks where we should see a flurry of buyers step in to BTFD. If BTC breaks above the 50 Day EMA around $37K right now, this would be extremely bullish and give us a bullish divergence. With rapidly declining EMAs, that's much more within reach now—roughly a $5K jump from here. A break above $40K would be even more bullish and almost certainly send BTC to near $50K as there's not much resistance in between. While Bitcoin's short-term range has tightened considerably, it should still be viewed in the light of $10K ranges now. 

 

 

 

From a probability perspective, sellers are simply chasing the trade at this point; the point of least resistance over the med-long term is up, not down. For nearly all investors/traders, bull markets are when you BTFD, not fade the rally (small subset of active investors). I continue to add on dips, especially near major support ($30K) and lower support (78.6% fib around $21K). Given all the bullish fundamentals and technicals developing and coming to light on a weekly basis in crypto and Bitcoin, there is no reason to believe we're about to enter a multi-year bear market. As a matter of fact, if you were wishing for cheap Bitcoin to get in when it was at $65K, now's your chance. 

 

 

 

Long-Term

BTFD. Fundamentals have not changed. Daily and even weekly charts will show relatively large corrections; this is standard bull market behavior. Now that another altseason has been spectacularly squashed, this sets us up for another Bitcoin leg up to new highs. By nearly every measure, we are nowhere near a top; in fact, we are maybe halfway through this bull market. What do you do during bull markets? Buy. The. Dip.

 

Support: $30K, then 78.6% fib retracement around $21,679.  

Resistance: $35K, EMAs around $36.9K, then $40K. 

 

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