Bitcoin fell a bit last week, getting rejected by the 50 Week EMA and pulling back to around $31K over the weekend. Bitcoin is off to a weak start to this week as it drifts ever-lower to just above $30K. If this doesn't hold, look for a swift drop to the low $20Ks as there's no significant support until $20K region.
(June 27, 2021 8:30PM EST)
Bitcoin is forming an ugly pattern on the chart right now as it continues to get rejected by resistance levels and looks just about ready to roll over. A break below $30K would likely send BTC to around the $20K region which is the previous cycle's ATH, where there should be ample buying pressure. This is ultimately our line in the sand; if $20K holds, we can bounce and start grinding back higher. If BTC breaks lower than $20K, then it will have retraced nearly the entire bull market rally thus far and we may be in a market purgatory for months if not a couple years. I lean much heavier towards the former scenario.
If we test $20K, I expect the buyers to step in and BTFD, especially institutional investors who have been waiting for more of a value entry position. Remember, it takes months (if not longer) for institutions to get compliance and finance approval to take new (and large) positions, especially into a new asset class. Saylor's friends and acquaintances could very well step in here and buy up a ton of BTC on the cheap: we already know retail has been and will continue to do so. If and I think it's more of a matter of when $30K breaks, I expect a violent bearish candle to $20K that results in an abrupt bounce back up to $30K or higher which should kickstart the next leg of the bull market rally.
There's simply too much bullishness in the space for BTC to prematurely enter another bear market. Demand is higher than ever--and growing. Supply is low--and decreasing. There are more and new ways for new investors and users to buy Bitcoin and crypto than ever before--and growing. Simply put, the fundamentals are extremely bullish and becoming ever-more bullish. While short-term price action is volatile, over the medium-long-term, this should be reflected in the price. I, as well as many others still very much expect BTC price to be well above $65K no later than Q4 2021.
BTFD. Fundamentals have not changed. By nearly every measure, we have not gotten anywhere near a market cycle top; in fact, we are maybe halfway through this bull market. What do you do during bull markets? Buy. The. Dip.