Bitcoin rallied a bit on Wednesday, rising to about the $33K level before the closing the daily candle near the highs. This is a bullish hammer, albeit a small one, so I'm far from convinced that the short-term trend has switched to bullish.
(July 14, 2021 8:30PM EST)
Down 2 days, up one day, rinse, repeat. Bitcoin is slowly drifting lower back down to the $30K level again. Since July started, Bitcoin has formed a pretty clean descending pattern. As this sideways consolidation pattern comes to a close, which it could any day now, Bitcoin looks to break lower. Why? Lower highs, lower lows. A retest of support at $30K is in the cards as early as this week or possibly over the low-volume weekend trading session. Regardless, the path of least resistance in the short-term is down, not up. That's not to say this is a good time to sell Bitcoin.
By nearly every measure, Bitcoin is still in a long-term bull market cycle. From a probability perspective, sellers are simply chasing the trade at this point; the point of least resistance over the med-long term is up, not down. For nearly all investors/traders, bull markets are when you BTFD, not fade the rally (small subset of active investors).
BTFD. Fundamentals have not changed. Daily and even weekly charts will show relatively large corrections; this is standard bull market behavior. Now that another altseason has been spectacularly squashed, this sets us up for another Bitcoin leg up to new highs. By nearly every measure, we are nowhere near a top; in fact, we are maybe halfway through this bull market. What do you do during bull markets? Buy. The. Dip.